The Fed and “Plunge Protection Team”: Are They Manipulating Stocks?
by Chart School - October 29th, 2010 4:19 pm
The Fed and "Plunge Protection Team": Are They Manipulating Stocks?
Rumors are, the U.S. government "is propping up the stock market."
By Elliott Wave International
You will find many intriguing Q&As at EWI’s Message Board. We offer it as a free way for our Club EWI members and subscribers to interact with EWI and the Socionomics Institute’s experts. We strive to answer every Message Board reader, and publicly post the best Q&As.
By far, the most frequent question we’ve been asked recently is:
"What is your take on the persistent internet chatter that the Federal Reserve is holding up the stock market via QE2, POMO, etc.? How can stocks ever decline again if the Fed is in control?"
We have several active Message Board posts that touch on "market manipulation." But here is an eye-opening chart that will help shed more light on this issue.
EWI President Robert Prechter published this chart in his October 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist. Review this chart carefully. For too many investors, the crash of 2007-2009 is becoming a hazy memory. And almost no one in the mainstream financial media talks about the utter panic in the markets in September-October 2008, the worst part of the crash.
If you think back to that time, you may remember that the Federal Reserve and U.S. government took many aggressive steps to help stop the collapse. Every time they would announce a new intervention, the market would cheer. Result? Prechter’s chart gives an unequivocal answer:
As you can see, announcements of bailouts, unlimited credit, bans on short sales, etc., were powerless against the biggest stock market collapse in 76 years. The DJIA kept sliding. It didn’t stop until March 6, 2009 — after it had slipped below 6,500.
So: Is the Fed and the "Plunge Protection Team" engaged in market manipulation? You can browse EWI’s Message Board for some answers, but one thing is clear: When stocks were crashing two years ago, few dared to suggest that the Fed was in the saddle. Bob Prechter puts it best:
"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."
Get the 33-page Market Myths Exposed eBook for…
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DiggThe Fed and “Plunge Protection Team”: Are They Manipulating Stocks?
by ilene - October 29th, 2010 3:21 pm
The Fed and "Plunge Protection Team": Are They Manipulating Stocks?
Rumors are, the U.S. government "is propping up the stock market."
By Elliott Wave International
You will find many intriguing Q&As at EWI’s Message Board. We offer it as a free way for our Club EWI members and subscribers to interact with EWI and the Socionomics Institute’s experts. We strive to answer every Message Board reader, and publicly post the best Q&As.
By far, the most frequent question we’ve been asked recently is:
"What is your take on the persistent internet chatter that the Federal Reserve is holding up the stock market via QE2, POMO, etc.? How can stocks ever decline again if the Fed is in control?"
We have several active Message Board posts that touch on "market manipulation." But here is an eye-opening chart that will help shed more light on this issue.
EWI President Robert Prechter published this chart in his October 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist. Review this chart carefully. For too many investors, the crash of 2007-2009 is becoming a hazy memory. And almost no one in the mainstream financial media talks about the utter panic in the markets in September-October 2008, the worst part of the crash.
If you think back to that time, you may remember that the Federal Reserve and U.S. government took many aggressive steps to help stop the collapse. Every time they would announce a new intervention, the market would cheer. Result? Prechter’s chart gives an unequivocal answer:
As you can see, announcements of bailouts, unlimited credit, bans on short sales, etc., were powerless against the biggest stock market collapse in 76 years. The DJIA kept sliding. It didn’t stop until March 6, 2009 — after it had slipped below 6,500.
So: Is the Fed and the "Plunge Protection Team" engaged in market manipulation? You can browse EWI’s Message Board for some answers, but one thing is clear: When stocks were crashing two years ago, few dared to suggest that the Fed was in the saddle. Bob Prechter puts it best:
"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."
Get the 33-page Market Myths Exposed eBook…
Prechter On Market Rally
by ilene - September 30th, 2010 11:20 am
Video (Part 1): Prechter On Market Rally
(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)
In the two videos below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that support his bear-market forecast.
Video (Part 2): Prechter: Ominous Pattern in the DJIA
Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter’s Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.
Deflation: The Trend That’s Become Too Obvious To Ignore
by ilene - September 23rd, 2010 7:43 pm
Deflation: The Trend That’s Become Too Obvious To Ignore
As the biggest credit bubble in history continues to shrink, consumer prices have stayed flat over the past several months, meaning there is no sign of inflation to come, despite growing commitments from the U.S. government.
So what’s keeping inflation at bay, given all the stimulus money promised? The answer: Deflation -- an overwhelming urge for consumers to liquidate their assets for cash. And this new economic phase is finally becoming too obvious to ignore, as explained in recent commentary from the world’s largest technical analysis firm.
"The economy is moving into a critical new phase, an outright deflation in which ‘prices fall because people expect falling prices.’ Obviously, this implies an element of recognition, as efforts to protect against indebtedness and falling prices contribute to further declines. We can tell deflation is entering a new stage because of the language and ideas that financial observers now use to describe it."
-- The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (September 2010)
Here are a few recent comments about the new economic reality:
- "[New Jersey Governor] Christie spelled out the details of his proposal Tuesday. They include: repealing an increase in benefits approved years ago; eliminating automatic cost-of-living adjustments; raising the retirement age to 65 from 60 in many cases; reducing pension payouts for many future retirees; and requiring some employees to contribute more to their pensions." -- Associated Press (Sept. 15)
- "U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms" -- Bloomberg (Sept. 15)
- "Atlanta Awash in Empty Offices Struggles to Recover From Building Binge" -- Bloomberg (Sept. 14)
- "The world economy faces a long, hard slog toward recovery and could slide into deflation and financial instability if leaders fail to deliver on promises of reform." -- Reuters (Sept. 10)
- "Deflation seems to have the upper hand lately in the debate among investors about inflation versus deflation." -- Marketwatch (Sept. 8 )
- "With the release of the August sales figures, one thing is clear for car shoppers — it’s a buyer’s market." -- Edmunds (Sept. 2)
- "20 Funds to Guard Against Deflation" -- Smartmoney (Aug. 29)
- "Dividend-Yield Signal Screams Deflation" -- Forbes (Aug. 25)
The word "deflation" also started appearing more in the financial media around 2002, but Robert Prechter, president of technical analysis firm Elliott Wave International and author of the 2002 New York Times best-seller Conquer the Crash, added in the updated 2009 edition of his book…
POST-MASSIVE BULL MARKETS
by ilene - September 18th, 2010 8:54 pm
POST-MASSIVE BULL MARKETS
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Taking the other side of the extremely bearish Robert Prechter view of the markets is today’s chart of the day which shows the performance of several post-massive bear market rallies:
Today’s chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today’s chart, a ‘massive’ bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow’s inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the very recent financial crisis). Today’s chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed a path that is fairly similar to that of post-massive bear market rallies. The initial surge of the current rally lasted nearly 300 trading days and has been trading flat/choppy ever since. If the current rally were to continue to follow the post-massive bear market rally pattern, the current choppy phase would continue for another 200+ trading days.
Notes:
- The market is at a critical juncture. Where we go from here may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive charts of Chart of the Day Plus.
Deflation: First Step, Understand It
by ilene - August 17th, 2010 6:38 pm
Deflation: First Step, Understand It
There is still time to prepare if deflation is indeed in our future.
By Elliott Wave International
"Fed’s Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation," reads a July 29 Washington Post headline.
When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation — something that EWI’s president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years — is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?
It’s not too late.
There are still steps you can take if deflation is indeed in our future. The first step is to understand what it is. So we’ve put together a special, free, 60-page Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation: Robert Prechter’s most important warnings about deflation." Enjoy this quick excerpt.
When Does Deflation Occur?
By Robert Prechter
To understand inflation and deflation, we have to understand the terms money and credit.
Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment; credit may be summarized as a right to access money. In today’s economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms "credit" and "debt" interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek warned of the consequences of credit expansion, as have a handful of other economists, who today are mostly ignored. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way:
In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following:
(a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common.
(b) Sometimes the excess-of-credit situation seemed to last years before the bubble broke.
(c) Some outside event, such as a major failure, brought the thing to a head, but the signs were visible many months, and in some cases years, in advance.
(d) None was ever quite like the last, so that the public was always fooled thereby.
(e) Some panics occurred under great government surpluses of revenue (1837, for instance) and some under great government deficits.
Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which…
ZeroHedge: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers Get Out Of Stocks.
by ilene - August 11th, 2010 1:49 pm
Excellent analysis by Jesse covering a number of items, including Robert Prechter’s successes and failures, the contraction in credit, gold, the Federal Reserve, the financial elite, and the sad truth that America’s dominant industry is financial fraud. - Ilene
ZeroHedge: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers Get Out Of Stocks.
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
First, Richard Russell does not ‘slam’ Prechter because he is a gentleman and doesn’t really ‘slam’ anyone. Fights between pundits can be fun in a voyeuristic way, but they are largely unproductive and generally used as a means of gaining attention, and providing distraction from what really matters, in the manner of panem et circenses. And sometimes people use provocative headlines to garner interest as well, in the manner of the New York Post and Daily News.
What Russell is saying is that Prechter is wrong in his interpretation of how deflation will play out, and what the endgame will look like. And he is saying almost the same thing that others, including Eric Janszen and myself, have been saying for quite some time, but in a slightly different ways.
Second, what Bob Prechter does not realize is that a contraction in credit does not imply a one for one decrease in ‘money’ just as an increase in credit these days does not result in a one for one increase in money. That is because credit is not money, it is the potential for money. Why more people don’t get that is beyond me. They trumpet the diminishing returns of money production for each marginal dollar of credit, but they don’t admit that this credit is vaporous, and as it dissipates it does not reduce money supply one for one either.
Third, and probably most importantly of all, even as the credit contracts, and the money supply contracts at some lesser rate as show in the money supply figures, the ‘basis of value’ of the money is also contracting. Since the US dollar is not based on gold, we have to look at what is providing the basis of its value. And what are those things, and what is happening to THEIR value.
And finally, there is a huge overhang of eurodollars out there, that are largely parked in Treasuries mostly of a moderate duration of three to ten years. By buying the Three and Ten year notes the Fed is ‘monetizing them’ and taking…
The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth
by ilene - August 11th, 2010 1:32 pm
The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth
By Elliott Wave International
The single most convenient untruth about the 2008 (and counting) financial crisis is that it was unforeseen. For two years policymakers have insisted "There was no way to know ahead of time" that the liquidity boom would come to a screeching halt. Back in November 2008, in fact, the usually tight-lipped Queen of England herself publicly described the turmoil of international markets as "awful" and openly asked a panel of experts from the London School of Economics "Why did nobody notice?"
Her Majesty is right: Most financial authorities did NOT notice the crisis before it was too late. Comedy Central’s "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" of all places provided the most poignant evidence: A March 2009 video montage shows executives and economists from the world’s leading financial firms repeatedly forecasting continued upside strength in stocks, plus renewed bull market growth in financials — right as debt markets came unhinged and the US stock market headed into a 50%-plus selloff.
Dubbed the "8-Minute Rap" (after the "18-Minute Gap" of Nixon’s Watergate tapes), the Daily Show video feature sent an equally powerful message, as the clip below makes plain.
Yet even as the mainstream authorities failed to detect the economic earthquake moving below their own feet, somebody did "notice" well in advance. That person was EWI’s president Bob Prechter.
The clip below is from a 2007 Bloomberg interview. Clear as PLAY, the foreseeable nature of the crisis emerges from Bob’s October 19, 2007 interview.
As the historic trend change began to unfold, Bob issued this timely insight:
"We’ve seen the first crack in the credit structure with a huge drop in commercial paper… These are the harbingers of a change toward the downside for the stock market, commodities including oil, and the debt market itself."
Don’t believe the convenient untruths. Get objective market analysis today. Download this free report that contains valuable market forecasts directly from the desk of Bob Prechter. This article, The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth, was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm.
EWI also just sent me an offer for a free eBook on trading lessons (click on banner below). – Ilene
Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’
by ilene - July 20th, 2010 4:39 am
Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’
By Elliott Wave International
Almost everybody who follows financial markets has heard about climbing the "wall of worry": the time when prices head up bullishly, but no one quite believes in the rally, so there’s more worry about a fall than a rise.
What’s the opposite condition in the market?
Bob Prechter named it the "slope of hope," meaning that as prices head down, no one wants to believe the market really has turned bearish, so there’s more hope for a rise than fear of a fall.
The market has been rising recently, following a bearish decline from late April through the end of June, which makes now the perfect time to learn more about the slope of hope.
* * * * *
Excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter, published June 18, 2010
According to polls, economists are virtually unanimous in the view that the “Great Recession” is over and a recovery is in progress, even though “full employment will take time,” etc. Yet mortgage writing has just plunged to a new low for the cycle (see Figure 1), and housing starts and permits just had their biggest percentage monthly drop since January 1991, which was at the end of a Primary-degree recession. But the latest “recession” supposedly ended a year ago. How can housing activity make new lows this far into a recovery? The answer is in the subtitle to Conquer the Crash, which includes the word depression. The subtleties in economic performance continue to suggest that it “was” not a “recession.” It is a depression, moving forward, in punctuated fashion, slowly but inexorably.
Despite this outlook, keep in mind what The Elliott Wave Theorist said last month: “Even though the market is about to begin its greatest decline ever, the era of hope is not quite finished.” For as long as another year and a half, there will be rallies, fixes, hopes and reasons to believe in recovery. Our name for this phase of a bear market is the Slope of Hope. This portion of the decline lasts until the center of the wave, where investors stop estimating upside potential and start being concerned with downside potential. Economists in the aggregate will probably not recognize that a depression is in force until 2012 or perhaps beyond. That’s the year the 7.5-year cycle is due to roll over (see April 2010 issue). Stock…
Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’
by ilene - July 16th, 2010 8:03 pm
Whatever you might say of Robert Prechter, one thing he isn’t is ambiguous. – Ilene
Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’
Courtesy of Elliott Wave International
Almost everybody who follows financial markets has heard about climbing the "wall of worry": the time when prices head up bullishly, but no one quite believes in the rally, so there’s more worry about a fall than a rise.
What’s the opposite condition in the market?
Bob Prechter named it the "slope of hope," meaning that as prices head down, no one wants to believe the market really has turned bearish, so there’s more hope for a rise than fear of a fall.
The market has been rising recently, following a bearish decline from late April through the end of June, which makes now the perfect time to learn more about the slope of hope.
* * * * *
Excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter, published June 18, 2010
According to polls, economists are virtually unanimous in the view that the “Great Recession” is over and a recovery is in progress, even though “full employment will take time,” etc. Yet mortgage writing has just plunged to a new low for the cycle (see Figure 1), and housing starts and permits just had their biggest percentage monthly drop since January 1991, which was at the end of a Primary-degree recession. But the latest “recession” supposedly ended a year ago. How can housing activity make new lows this far into a recovery? The answer is in the subtitle to Conquer the Crash, which includes the word depression. The subtleties in economic performance continue to suggest that it “was” not a “recession.” It is a depression, moving forward, in punctuated fashion, slowly but inexorably.
Despite this outlook, keep in mind what The Elliott Wave Theorist said last month: “Even though the market is about to begin its greatest decline ever, the era of hope is not quite finished.” For as long as another year and a half, there will be rallies, fixes, hopes and reasons to believe in recovery. Our name for this phase of a bear market is the Slope of Hope. This portion of the decline lasts until the center of the wave, where investors stop estimating upside potential and start being concerned with downside potential. Economists in the aggregate will probably not recognize that a depression is in force until 2012 or…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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