More On My “Deflationary Collapse” Ticker
by ilene - September 17th, 2009 3:00 pm
More On My "Deflationary Collapse" Ticker
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
Boy, that got people’s attention.
We must change our economic course now and accept the contraction that MUST COME in order to save our economic and monetary system.
Yep.
It also drew critics, chief among them being people who claimed that "debt isn’t really growing at that percentage beyond GDP."
Oh yes it is.
In fact, I was being rather reasonable, in that I was using time periods going all the way back to the 1950s.
But – let’s focus in on "closer to today", specifically, 1990 forward.
I think we can all agree that the 1990s were tremendously good times for GDP, and were not nearly so destructive for debt, right?
Ok.
Well, I hate people telling me they think I’m being unrealistically "doom and gloomish", so I "de-theoreticalized" that chart a bit, and picked on more-recent times where the growth rates were pretty darn good and some of the really-expansive debt periods, particularly from the 70s, were not included.
Here are the ugly facts – not conjecture, not assumptions, not going back 50 years data, current and unassailable facts.
During the period from 1990 onward, GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 5.361%1. Debt during the same period, nearly 20 years, grew at a compound annual rate of 7.9401%.
It is worse if you look at 2000 onward – there GDP growth was 5.25% on an average annual basis, while debt growth was 8.6279%.
I thus have "recast" the 20-year forward graph for you in two forms – one assuming we can maintain the 1990 onward rates (which are more favorable) and the second assuming that the 2000 onward rates are what we face going forward.
Note that the GDP growth rate exceeds (by at least one percent and in most cases two percent!) the expected actual economic growth rate for at least the next five years from nearly all mainstream economists. I am also not building in any extraordinary increase in debt for the projected (by both the White House and CBO) increase in Federal Debt by $9 trillion over 10 years – a 100% increase – as it roughly corresponds with the expected debt increase in the economy
Tags: Deflationary Collapse, Karl Denninger, Ponzi Finance Indicator, The Market Ticker
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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