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Posts Tagged ‘market rally’

Dr. Strangebear

Here are a few quick posts by Tim Knight at Slope of Hope. - Ilene

Dr. Strangebear

Or……..how I learned to stopped worrying and love the bull.

I bought a very large position in SSO earlier today for a couple of reasons:

  • I don’t get my jollies out of losing money;
  • The OPEX week clearly has import;
  • I was impressed and convinced by Fujisan’s post last night, calling for – if memory serves – a push to 1086 by Friday.

I am having fewer and fewer compunctions about buying select stocks. That is evident from my watch lists.

One cause for concern for the bulls remains…………..volume! Just take a look at the volume graph; it’s simply pathetic.

0916-sso 

When Does the V Exhaust?

It is generally true that prices climb higher at a far slower rate than they drop. This rally, however, has been a remarkable exception. The push higher has been explosive, and it has pushed higher with just about the same timetable and force as the drop itself.

0916-V

The question, of course, is: when (if ever) will it end?

There are as many opinions as there are traders, but a few general camps would be, using the example of the Russell 2000 above:

  • It has another 10% to go, and it will happen quickly. That would be painful for the bears, but I would hasten to point out that, at that level, the Russell would have completely retraced to the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern spanning three years whose beauty would make bears (if there are any left by then) weep tears of joy.
  • It’s done climbing and will start falling. This has been uttered so many times by so many parties (including, I admit, a few times by me) that it’s not even worth considering anymore. The entire, "OK, now………….errr………OK, NOW!………..oh, wait…………….errr, NOW!" gets really, really old.
  • We’re in a major new bull market and it’s simply going to keep pushing its way through to progressively higher prices.

For the bears out there who would like some encouraging news, the semiconductor index – which is a helpful bellweather – is looking like it is approaching a huge area of resistance. This is why I bought SSG yesterday.

0916-sox  

Snark and Despair All the


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S&P Hits 1,000 – A Sampling of Headlines From Last Time We Saw This Level…

Welcome to Zach! - Ilene

S&P Hits 1,000 – A Sampling of Headlines From Last Time We Saw This Level…

Wall Street JournalCourtesy of Zach at ZachStocks

Welcome Back!  I have to admit that seeing the S&P 500 index back in “quadruple digit status” makes me just a bit nostalgic.  So do you remember where you were the last time the S&P closed above 1,000?  For me, the memories are a bit hazy as our twins were born October 21, and since the last time we saw this level occurred on November 4th, I was a good fortnight into sleep deprivation.

Actually the bigger question might be if you remember where you were the first day this side of 2004 when you saw the S&P close below the 1,000 mark.  The date was October seventh and being a bit of a pack rat, I still have the Wall Street Journal for Oct 8th in which the headline reads:

US, Britain Up Ante in Fight to Stop Crisis

Obviously, that fight had a long way to go as the S&P eventually dropped another 33% before hitting rock bottom just off the illustrious 666 level.  The trip down memory lane is more than just “for old times sake” – it’s important to realize just how far we have come and what issues caused (and prolonged) this financial crisis.  Here are a few additional noteworthy headlines:

Sept 13: Crisis on Wall Street as Lehman Totters, Merrill Seeks Buyer, AIG Hunts for Cash

The article explains that after bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac just one week prior, the government refused to provide a financial backstop to potential buyers of Lehman

Sept 17: U.S. Plans Rescue of AIG to Halt Crisis; Central Banks Inject Cash as Credit Dries Up

“The Federal Reserve appeared to be motivated in part by worries that Wall Street’s financial crisis could begin to spill over into seemingly safe investments held by small investors such as money-market funds that invest in AIG debt.”  I honestly don’t think that the Fed had any idea of the magnitude of what they were dealing with yet.

Sept 20: U.S. Bailout Plan Calms Markets, But Struggle Looms Over Details

The accompanying picture includes SEC Chairman Cox, Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke walking solemnly behind President Bush.  The “in process” treasury plan was revealed and was


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WILL COMMODITIES KILL THE STOCK RALLY?

WILL COMMODITIES KILL THE STOCK RALLY?

WILL COMMODITIES KILL THE STOCK RALLY?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Energy & materials stocks make up 25% of the S&P 500.  Without their participation it’s nearly impossible for a sustainable rally.  One of the key contributors to the “sell in May and go away” data is the seasonal trends in commodity related stocks.   Over the last 10 years materials and oil related stocks have averaged 17% gains from October to May.  That seasonal strength adds tremendously to the overall indices.  As I often mention here, much of this is attributable to the strong seasonal demand trends in the oil markets.  Oil demand tends to dip during the fall and early winter before spiking in February and continuing into the July 4th holiday when the summer driving season officially ends.  This trend has clearly continued again this year as oil and gasoline have rallied over 95% since the March bottom:

oilandgas

The strong seasonal trend says you should be selling commodities now, but this isn’t the only evidence that makes me cautious heading into late summer.  David Rosenberg, of Gluskin-Sheff notes some important drivers of the recent commodity rally:

With the U.S. still in recession, what has been fueling the commodity markets have been the revival signs in China, and here, the news has become mixed from a commodity standpoint. We learned that Chinese imports of refined copper hit a record high in May for the fourth month in a row; but domestic supplies were actually put to work in terms of consumption at a much slower rate. In fact, the FT estimates that Chinese copper usage actually fell 3.5% in May even as imports surged 6% MoM (and 25.8% from a year ago). The same holds true for aluminum where consumption fell 1% in May.

Without question, the largest contributor to the recent run-up in commodity prices was China’s stimulus plan.  The IEA data has been unquestionably mixed in recent months (including yesterday’s downgrade of world oil demand) and hasn’t warranted the incredible price moves.   It’s not a stretch to say that China, along with regular seasonal speculation have been the primary drivers of the commodity price climbs.   And we’re now getting signs from China that they have stopped the stockpiling and expect lower prices going forward.  The Sydney Morning Herald notes:

“We


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Phil's Favorites

Mind Blowing Economic Charts – First Time Claims, The Stock Market, and The Fed

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Improvement in first time unemployment claims is slowing. Actual, not seasonally manipulated data, including an adjustment for the usual weekly upward revision, shows that the year to year rate of change is on the cusp of a possible upside breakout, which would be good news for stock market bears if it happens.

Initial Unemployment Claims Chart- Click to enlarge

Here’s why it’s mind blowing. I’ve plotted it below on an inverse scale with the S&P 500 overlaid.

Unemployemt Claims and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

That speaks for itself. As the i...



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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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ETF Selector

US Markets Drop On Italy Fear (EWI, DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...

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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down for the Day and the Week

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 broke its string of four-consecutive weekly gains with loss of 0.63% for the day and 2.48% for the week.

The index is back in the red year-to-date, down 0.35% and 8.09% below the interim high of April 29.

From an intermediate perspective, the index is 85.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 19.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 


Click for a larger image ...

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Zero Hedge

Dallas Fed Latest Economic Contraction Confirmation; Survey Respondents' Gloom Soars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...



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Insider Scoop

Diana Containerships Files To Offer Stock Up To $172.5M -Bloomberg (DCIX)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.

Visit Benzinga >

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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OpTrader

Swing trading virtual portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.  

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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