Posts Tagged
‘Lost Decade’
by ilene - September 19th, 2010 1:48 pm
Courtesy of Mish
The US used to point the finger at Japan’s "Lost Decade" saying "It won’t happen here." But it did. Median wages are nearly 5% lower in real terms than in 2000, the poverty rate is at a 15 year high, and the S&P 500 is about 20% lower than it was a decade ago.
Pleased consider the Wall Street Journal article Lost Decade for Family Income
The downturn that some have dubbed the "Great Recession" has trimmed the typical household’s income significantly, new Census data show, following years of stagnant wage growth that made the past decade the worst for American families in at least half a century.
The bureau’s annual snapshot of American living standards also found that the fraction of Americans living in poverty rose sharply to 14.3% from 13.2% in 2008—the highest since 1994. Some 43.6 million Americans were living below the official poverty threshold, but the measure doesn’t fully capture the panoply of government antipoverty measures.
The inflation-adjusted income of the median household—smack in the middle of the populace—fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009, even worse than the 1970s, when median income rose 1.9% despite high unemployment and inflation. Between 2007 and 2009, incomes fell 4.2%.
Lost Decade Lowlights
- Americans living in poverty rose sharply to 14.3% from 13.2% in 2008
- Poverty level is the highest since 1994
- 43.6 million Americans are living below the official poverty threshold
- Inflation-adjusted income of the median household fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009
- The number of 25-to-34-year-olds living with their parents rose 8.4% to 5.5 million in 2010 from 2008
- Child poverty rose to 23.8% for kids under six in 2009, compared to 21.3% a year earlier
Census Bureau Charts
Here are a few select charts from Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2009, Issued September 2010.
click on any chart for sharper image
Real Incomes 1967 to 2009
Poverty Rates 1959 to 2009
In general, the chart shows the "War on Poverty" was a failure regardless of what political party was in office. The odd pair of Clinton and Nixon did the best, while Carter and George W. Bush the worst. Reagan and George H. Bush both had roller coasters ending about where they started, while Ford essentially experienced a flatline.
Since the…
Tags: America, great recession, income, Lost Decade, poverty, wages
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by ilene - July 1st, 2010 4:56 pm
Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame). Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. – Ilene
Courtesy of Mish
I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present
click on chart for sharper image
Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.
Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present
click on chart for sharper image
Lost Decades Comparison
Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.
Japan’s Two Lost Decades
click on chart for sharper image
The Perpetually Optimistic Mish
Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.
Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.
Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!
Meanwhile doom and gloomers like Robert Prechter think the Dow will fall to 1,000.
To that I say "Poppycock" (pretty harsh language indeed for those who know me well).
By my optimistic comparison, I think the Dow’s downside is 5,000. That is a stunning 400% more optimistic appraisal of the current state of affairs than Prechter.
Furthermore, I freely admit that the DOW, instead of dropping, just may meander around 10,000 for another decade.
Wow. Except for public pension plan assumptions, imagine the parties we can have over that!
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Tags: bear market, Economy, japan, Lost Decade, Mish, Robert Prechter, Stock Market
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by ilene - May 23rd, 2010 4:53 am
Courtesy of Rom Badilla, CFA – Bondsquawk.com
As Bondsquawkers know, the bigger concern right now should be deflation risk. We preach this because the issue should be paramount on people’s worry list and should be labeled public enemy number one. FT.com’s Money Supply raises the idea of deflation in this recent blog post but suggests that it is not an issue for now (1). The post states:
With the core PCE and the core CPI running much lower than the Fed’s target range, and lower than expected earlier in the year, some within the Fed are clearly getting nervous that a deflationary spiral could be on the horizon if the economy hits another rough patch, which isn’t out of the question given events in the Euro zone.
But most within the US central bank – even excluding the inflation hawks – are probably still reasonably comfortable that such a scenario will not unfold.
The first reason is that in all likelihood as the economy recovers and the output gap closes, inflation will start to rise at a faster rate.
The economy has yet to prove that this “recovery” is sustainable. Sure, GDP growth for the past two quarters has been encouraging. The mainstream media, analysts, and politicians were showing a sigh of relief earlier and patting themselves on the back as the financial crash train wreck is an image in the rearview mirror. However, most failed to distinguish the difference between economic growth fueled by increases in innovation and productivity and economic growth fueled by increased spending driven by easy access to money. One is sustainable while the other can run only until your pockets run dry. The fact remains that much of the improvement is derived from stimulus programs which at this point in the game is about to run out.
For arguments sake, let’s assume that GDP remains positive and in line with expectations which is running in the mid to low 3 percent range for both 2010 and 2011. Unemployment recently increased to 9.9 percent in April. If we refer back to Okun’s law (2) (named after economist, Arthur Okun in the early 1960’s), which is the empirical economic relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and the change in output or GDP, we can determine the level of output growth necessary to…
Tags: deflation, deflation risk, Economy, federal stimulus, GDP, inflation, Lost Decade, Recovery
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by Zero Hedge - January 9th, 2010 12:58 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
By now everyone knows about the Rip Van Winkle effect in stocks: the "noughties" were a snoozer, with the stock market lower on December 31, 2009 than on January 1, 2000. Yet what may have escaped most people is that the decade was also a scratch in terms of employment: the country now has essentially the same number of employed people as it did 10 years ago.
The problem, of course, is that both the total population, and the size of the workforce have not stayed flat over the past 10 years. The charts below demonstrate the Employment-To-Population ratio for all time, and, more disturbingly, for the past 3 years. This ratio is now the lowest it has been in almost 30 years.
David Rosenberg, who made the observation, had this to say about this very troubling trend:
We started the decade with a national payroll level of 130.8 million. We finished the decade practically unchanged at 130.9 million. Meanwhile, the total pool of available labour rose from 146 million to 159 million. In other words, we have the same number of jobs today as we did a decade ago, and yet we also have 13 million more people competing for them. It was more than just a lost decade for the equity market. It was a lost decade for the labour market. Today’s report validated the Fed’s concern over the outlook for employment, which dominated the FOMC minutes released earlier in the week. Those pundits calling for an early exit from the central bank’s accommodative stance may have some reconsidering to do.
An even better way to visualize this, is the difference between the total number of civilians employed and the total US population (308.3 million). The number in December is a record 170.5 million. Keep in mind only 137.8 million are currently employed according to the BLS.
There isn’t much spinability here. The employment picture in America is horrendous and getting worse. In the worlds of Rosenberg again:
The so-called ‘employment rate’ — the ratio of employment to population — fell 58.2% from 58.5% in November and the cycle peak of 63.4% in 2007. This is extremely significant because what it means is that it would take an expansion in employment of 20 million over the next five years just to get
…
Tags: Jobs, Lost Decade, The Lost Decade For Jobs
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by ilene - December 5th, 2009 7:02 pm
If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This
The major stock indexes are the wrong place to look
By Robert Folsom, courtesy of Elliott Wave International
A well-known business magazine recently published a story with this headline:
Stocks: The "Loss" Decade
A disastrous ten years for the stock market ends in just a month. Will the turning of a new decade change investors’ luck?
One sentence from the story itself tells you most of what you need to know: "The ten years since Y2K are on track to produce the worst total returns for investors since the 1930s."
Of course, no one should really be surprised by a story that says the stock indexes did poorly over the past decade. That’s not news. The facts in the article more or less repeat what our own Elliott Wave Financial Forecast reported last March, complete with this chart:
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It’s safe to say that this business magazine article is the first of many the media will run before the year’s end, as part of their "decade wrap-up" stories. And like this story, most or all those like will share the same basic assumption: stock investors did poorly because the stock indexes did poorly.
And that assumption, dear reader, is erroneous. The truth is far uglier.
Here’s what I mean. If you want to know how real stock investors really behave, the major stock indexes are the wrong place to look. Published results from firms like Dalbar and Vanguard consistently show that, over the past 25 years, individual investors and mutual fund shareholders have had average returns that are half (at best) of the annual returns of the broader stock market.
So, for example, in 20 years from Jan. 1, 1989 through Dec. 31, 2008, the S&P 500 showed a 8.35% gain (Dalbar). Over that same period, equity investors showed a 1.87% gain. And if you include the 2.89% inflation rate in those years, investors show a 1.02% loss.
You can shift to a timeframe which excludes the bear market that started in 2007, but it doesn’t change the basic story. From January 1984 though December 2002, the Dalbar data shows that equity investors earned an annual average of 2.6% vs. the S&P 500′s 12.2% annual average. The annual inflation rate for period was 3.14%.
What’s more, similar studies and surveys also…
Tags: elliott wave international, free ebook, Lost Decade, Stock Market, technical analysis
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by ilene - December 1st, 2009 1:55 pm
Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund
We’ve been observing Howard Davidowitz for about 2 years now, and he is quite possibly (aside from Marc Faber) one of the most flamboyant speakers in the financial universe. Agree, or disagree – he is a hoot to simply listen to.
2009
2008
While he is a retail analyst by trade, he talks the big picture and seems to have a lot better grasp on economic issues than the majority of the celebrated pundits. That said, everything he is saying is being completely dismissed by the tsunami of paper dollars central banks are printing, and the "buy buy buy" punditry is back looking like "genius". I thought there would be a disassociation between economics and market but wow, never in my wildest dreams did I think 9 straight months up… with no one fearing this won’t just be the 10th. [April 3, 2009: The Current (and Coming) Disassociation Between Wall Street and Main Street].
At this point I am just viewing the market as a federally subsidized gambling parlor ("gambling for dummies" since all you need to watch is 1 entity, the US dollar) with free chips handed out by Ben Bernanke daily… very little to do with much of the real world anymore.
Anyhow…
We have 3 videos (about 4-6 minutes) each from Davidowitz below via Yahoo Tech Ticker; I believe he gets more agitated in each iteration. Then again, Howard’s statis level seems to be "agitated". 
(1) What Recovery? US Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse"
According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were $41.2 billion, up slightly from a year ago, while about 195 million consumers shopped, up from 172 million last year.
Meanwhile, Coremetrics says the average online shopper spent 35% more on Black Friday vs. a year ago, while robust sales were predicted for Cyber
…
Tags: consumer, Howard Davidowitz, japan, Japan's NIKKEI, Lost Decade, lost jobs, Stock Market, unemployment
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by ilene - October 23rd, 2009 3:45 pm
Courtesy of Mish
Japan has gone through two lost decades, in and out of deflation, with nothing to show for it but increasing debt to GDP and a stock market still 70% below its peak.
Now, Richard Koo of Nomura Research Institute Ltd. says U.S. Risks Japan-Like ‘Lost Decade’ on Stimulus Exit.
U.S. officials contemplating an exit from record fiscal stimulus are in danger of repeating mistakes that plunged Japan into its lost decade of stagnant growth, according to Richard Koo of Nomura Research Institute Ltd.
“This isn’t a cold, its more like pneumonia,” said Koo, author of “Balance Sheet Recession,” a 2003 book about the malaise that hit Japan after its stock and real-estate markets crashed in 1990. “We still need more government spending,” he said, adding it could take “three to five years to get out of this mess, even under the best of circumstances.”
Koo’s comments echo the view of economists including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who warn that the U.S.’s likely return to growth in the second half of 2009 doesn’t mean a sustained recovery is assured. The Obama administration aims to rein in a record $1.4 trillion budget deficit as growth returns, seeking to safeguard the value of a declining dollar.
“If you learn your lesson from the Japanese experience, you don’t remove your fiscal stimulus until private sector de- leveraging is over,” Koo, 55, chief economist at the research arm of Japan’s biggest brokerage, said in an interview at his Tokyo office last week. “When we see the private sector coming to borrow again, I’ll be the loudest person on earth arguing for fiscal reform. That’s the exit.”
Koo calculates that the bursting of Japan’s asset bubble in 1990 erased 1,500 trillion yen ($16 trillion) in wealth, equivalent to three times the size of the economy. Companies focused on repaying debt rather than undertaking new projects, causing demand to plummet and triggering a cycle in which cash flows fell, asset prices dropped and balance sheets deteriorated.
This time it’s the U.S. consumer that’s inundated with debt. Household debt soared more than 10 percent each year from 2002 to 2005, when the economy expanded an average of 2.75 percent.
“We have zero interest rates and still nothing’s happening,” Koo said. Businesses and households don’t want to
…
Tags: japan, Koo, Krugman, Lost Decade, Romer
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by ilene - October 10th, 2009 2:40 pm
In this article, John Mauldin discusses his thoughts on what could be done to save the goose from its date with the axe. – Ilene
Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline
Peggy Noonan, maybe the most gifted essayist of our time, wrote a few weeks ago about the vague concern that many of us have that the monster looming up ahead of us has the potential (my interpretation) for not just plucking a few feathers from the goose that lays the golden egg (the US free-market economy), or stealing a few more of the valuable eggs, but of actually killing the goose. Today we look at the possibility that the fiscal path of the enormous US government deficits we are on could indeed kill the goose, or harm it so badly it will make the lost decades that Japan has suffered seem like a stroll in the park.
And while I do not think we will get to that point (though I can’t deny the possibility), for reasons I will go into, there is the very real prospect that the upheavals created by not dealing proactively with the problems (or denying they exist) will be as bad as or worse than the credit crisis we have gone through. This is not going to be something that happens overnight, and the seeming return to normalcy that so many predict has the rather alarming aspect of creating a sense of complacency that will only serve to “kick the can” down the road.
This week we look at the problem, and then muse upon what the more likely scenarios are that may play out. This is a longer version of a speech I gave this morning to the New Orleans Conference, where I also offered a path out of the problems. This letter will be a little more controversial than normal, but I hope it makes us all think about the very serious plight we have put ourselves in.
Let’s review a few paragraphs I wrote last month: “I have seven kids. As our family grew, we limited the choices our kids could make; but as they grew into teenagers, they were given more leeway. Not all of their choices were good. How many times did Dad say, ‘What were you thinking?’ and get a mute reply or a mumbled ‘I don’t know.’
“Yet how…
Tags: fiscal path, global financial experiment, hyperinflation, japan, John Mauldin, killing the goose, Lost Decade, printing money, US government deficits
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by ilene - September 16th, 2009 2:25 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Superb analysis out of SocGen analysts this morning. Dylan Grice says the Chinese economy has many similarities to the Japanese economy before it imploded in the 90’s. He cites 8 reasons why the Chinese economy is likely to be an even larger implosion than the Japanese economy:
Studying the lessons from Japan’s lost decade(s) is key for anyone seeking to understand today’s post-bubble world. But a closer reading of Japan’s financial history illuminates today’s China far more. In the early 1980s, on the eve of its financial liberalisation, Japan was the rising power from the East set to overtake the West. Younger and growing rapidly, it was still a decade away from its climactic and catastrophic bubble peak. This is where China is now.
- Japan’s deflationary experience since its bubble burst haunts policy makers and investors, who are confronted with a bewildering range of theories explaining what has gone wrong and how a similar scenario can or can’t be avoided.
- But the real cause of Japan’s deflation is probably more demographic than debt-related. If so, maybe we should be more worried about the side-effects of an ongoing stimulus overdose aimed at reviving the dead, rather than fighting a more ordinary bout of flu.
- Japan has been the first industrial economy to begin demographic contraction. Indeed, thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s 1979 one child policy, China will soon face the same problem.
- But it is unlikely China will suffer the same immediate fate. In fact, further reflection on the similarities between China and Japan leads one to realise that many of the challenges confronting China today have already been faced by Japan, demography being only one.
- From the strained currency diplomacy to the accusation of favouring exports over domestic demand, from the Western marvelling at Confucian capitalism to the sense of inevitability about the rising of a great power in the East ? all were as true for Japan 30 years ago as they are of China today.
- And Japan 30 or so years ago might be a more fruitful analogy altogether. There is a clear historic coincidence of manias and geopolitical shifts. In the 1980s, Japan’s developing financial bubble reflected a shifting of the balance of power in its direction.
- But the geopolitical shift towards China now underway dwarfs that seen in
…
Tags: bubble, CHINA, Chinese economy, Dylan Grice, economic implosion, japan, Japanese economy, Lost Decade
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by ilene - July 17th, 2009 10:42 am
Courtesy of the Financial Ninja, Ben
FN: Nobody seems to care, but it really is all about deflation. Deflation first, inflation later. That is how this mess will play out. There is no other way, despite Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke’s best efforts to inspire inflation and skip the whole deflation part. The Master Plan really is to inflate, but the math simply doesn’t add up.
What kind of "urgent action" can be taken to "reduce high levels of excess capacity"? No amount of additional debt will put that idle capacity to work. Other than taking dynamite to idle factories, the only other "effective" measure would be to start a war. Wars have the added benefit of putting the unemployed to work even as infrastructure is blown up.
World Bank warns of deflation spiral: "The World Bank has given warning that global economy will fall into a "deflationary spiral" unless urgent action is taken to reduce high levels of excess capacity in industry.
Justin Lin, the bank’s chief economist, said factories running idle around world threaten to trap economies in a vicious cycle, risking further spasms of financial stress, requiring yet more rescue packages.
"Significant excess capacity has been built up and unless this issue is addressed, we will face a deflationary spiral and the crisis will become protracted," he told an audience in Cape Town.
Mr Lin said capacity use had fallen to 72pc in Germany, 69pc in the US, 65pc in Japan, and as low as 50pc in some developing countries, mostly touching lows not seen in modern times.
The traditional cure for countries caught in slumps is to claw their way back to health through devaluation, but this cannot be done today because the crisis is global. "No country can count on currency depreciation and exports as a way out of recession. Unless we deal with excess capacity, it will wreak havoc on all countries. There is urgent need for global, co-ordinated fiscal stimulus," he said.
Investments should be focused on infrastructure in poor countries that are bearing the brunt of the crisis. The downturn is already likely to trap over 50m more people in extreme poverty this year.
Mr Lin said some $30 trillion has been wiped off global stock markets and a further $4 trillion off US house prices, creating powerful deflationary headwinds. While emergency
…
Tags: currency depreciation, deflation, Economy, inflation, Lost Decade, quantitative easing
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January 3rd, 2012 8:20 am
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Ray Dalio has created a machine at hedge fund Bridgewater – not only have assets surpassed $120B, the fund continues to churn out some fantastic results for investors. Through end of August last year, the fund was up 25% YTD (and that was after an awful August for markets, and before the stampede upward of October); this after a 44% gain in 2010. Longer term, ...
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December 28th, 2011 5:24 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
The US Dollar was up and the market was down on minimal volume. And yup, that's about the extent of today's action. The biggest gainer on my watch list of 125 securities was Bankrate (RATE) with a paltry +0.8% return. Updated market charts below. See you tomorrow!
...
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November 9th, 2011 5:48 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:
DIA), (NYSEARCA:
SPY), (
NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:
IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...
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November 4th, 2011 5:13 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Markets dropped slightly lower today on G-20 news, mixed economic reports, and Grecian woes.
After the confusing market action on Wall Street this week, it seems that markets cannot make up their minds after last week’s euphoric rally and Euro-zone compromise. It appeared that markets were on a meteoric rise that could have possibly carried us into Christmas, however Prime Minister Papandreou’s referendum call for Greece and MF Global’s bankruptcy soured the mood.
The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) dropped half a percent today; the fall likely represents the current troubles of MF Global Holdings (NYSEArca:MF), which filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. MF Global has ...
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August 29th, 2011 10:52 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...
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May 25th, 2011 4:59 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga
Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.
Visit Benzinga >
...
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March 12th, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
VLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.
KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.
SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.
AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...
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March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm
Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX
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March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm
This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
Swing trading virtual portfolio
One trade virtual portfolio
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March 6th, 2011 8:22 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy
Comments welcome... share your thoughts.
Download Newsletter 3/6/11
Stock World Weekly archives here >
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March 1st, 2011 9:42 am
February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
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