Posts Tagged
‘Japanese economy’
by ilene - September 16th, 2009 2:25 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Superb analysis out of SocGen analysts this morning. Dylan Grice says the Chinese economy has many similarities to the Japanese economy before it imploded in the 90’s. He cites 8 reasons why the Chinese economy is likely to be an even larger implosion than the Japanese economy:
Studying the lessons from Japan’s lost decade(s) is key for anyone seeking to understand today’s post-bubble world. But a closer reading of Japan’s financial history illuminates today’s China far more. In the early 1980s, on the eve of its financial liberalisation, Japan was the rising power from the East set to overtake the West. Younger and growing rapidly, it was still a decade away from its climactic and catastrophic bubble peak. This is where China is now.
- Japan’s deflationary experience since its bubble burst haunts policy makers and investors, who are confronted with a bewildering range of theories explaining what has gone wrong and how a similar scenario can or can’t be avoided.
- But the real cause of Japan’s deflation is probably more demographic than debt-related. If so, maybe we should be more worried about the side-effects of an ongoing stimulus overdose aimed at reviving the dead, rather than fighting a more ordinary bout of flu.
- Japan has been the first industrial economy to begin demographic contraction. Indeed, thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s 1979 one child policy, China will soon face the same problem.
- But it is unlikely China will suffer the same immediate fate. In fact, further reflection on the similarities between China and Japan leads one to realise that many of the challenges confronting China today have already been faced by Japan, demography being only one.
- From the strained currency diplomacy to the accusation of favouring exports over domestic demand, from the Western marvelling at Confucian capitalism to the sense of inevitability about the rising of a great power in the East ? all were as true for Japan 30 years ago as they are of China today.
- And Japan 30 or so years ago might be a more fruitful analogy altogether. There is a clear historic coincidence of manias and geopolitical shifts. In the 1980s, Japan’s developing financial bubble reflected a shifting of the balance of power in its direction.
- But the geopolitical shift towards China now underway dwarfs that seen in
…

Tags: bubble, CHINA, Chinese economy, Dylan Grice, economic implosion, japan, Japanese economy, Lost Decade
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January 3rd, 2012 8:20 am
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Ray Dalio has created a machine at hedge fund Bridgewater – not only have assets surpassed $120B, the fund continues to churn out some fantastic results for investors. Through end of August last year, the fund was up 25% YTD (and that was after an awful August for markets, and before the stampede upward of October); this after a 44% gain in 2010. Longer term, ...
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December 28th, 2011 5:24 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
The US Dollar was up and the market was down on minimal volume. And yup, that's about the extent of today's action. The biggest gainer on my watch list of 125 securities was Bankrate (RATE) with a paltry +0.8% return. Updated market charts below. See you tomorrow!
...
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November 9th, 2011 5:48 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:
DIA), (NYSEARCA:
SPY), (
NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:
IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...
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November 4th, 2011 5:13 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Markets dropped slightly lower today on G-20 news, mixed economic reports, and Grecian woes.
After the confusing market action on Wall Street this week, it seems that markets cannot make up their minds after last week’s euphoric rally and Euro-zone compromise. It appeared that markets were on a meteoric rise that could have possibly carried us into Christmas, however Prime Minister Papandreou’s referendum call for Greece and MF Global’s bankruptcy soured the mood.
The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) dropped half a percent today; the fall likely represents the current troubles of MF Global Holdings (NYSEArca:MF), which filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. MF Global has ...
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August 29th, 2011 10:52 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...
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May 25th, 2011 4:59 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga
Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.
Visit Benzinga >
...
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March 12th, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
VLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.
KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.
SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.
AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...
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March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm
Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX
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March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm
This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
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March 6th, 2011 8:22 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy
Comments welcome... share your thoughts.
Download Newsletter 3/6/11
Stock World Weekly archives here >
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March 1st, 2011 9:42 am
February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
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