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Posts Tagged ‘insider buying’

Insider Buying/Selling: The Collected Wisdom of a Thousand Heartbreaks

Insider Buying/Selling: The Collected Wisdom of a Thousand Heartbreaks

broken heart

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

With stocks challenging multi-year highs, I thought today would be a good opportunity to address one persistently negative datapoint that seems to be stuck in our collective craw – the trend of insider selling way outpacing insider buying in Corporate America.  And no, I have no idea what the hell a "craw" is, I’m a northerner.

My pal The Pragmatic Capitalist has done an excellent job on his site of documenting the weekly flow of sellers versus buyers and as you can plainly see, insiders are simply not showing up and purchasing shares of their own companies.  For example, insider buying totaled only $4.6 million worth of stock last week while selling hit $626 million. 

Of course, this is not bullish…but is it straight-up bearish?  Since I’ve fought all of these battles and learned a lot about the utility of tracking insiders (the hard way), I’ll share some of my insights on the subject and let you decide how meaningful this data is…

There will be generalizations below, take them with a grain of salt:

1.  "Growth Stocks" don’t get bought by insiders and executives unless the shares get hammered by a one-time event.

2.  Insider buying in "Value Stocks" is way more meaningful, especially in turnaround situations.

3.  Technology executives would rather be locked in a dark basement, listening to Billy Joel’s…
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INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RECOVERY TALK

Here’s Pragcap’s weekly report on insider trends.  I added several charts from Insider Cow below.  These charts show the lack of insider buying very graphically.  The decline in the buying/selling ratio appears to be due to extremely low levels of buying, because the selling is not at particularly high levels. – Ilene 

INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RECOVERY TALK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Negative trends in insider transactions were little changed on the week as insiders remain heavy sellers of their own shares while purchasing next to none.  Total buying remained very low historically at just $4.65MM for the week ending April 23rd.  Selling also declined from last week, but remains substantially higher than buying at $626MM.

The 4 week moving average fell slightly to $6.36MM – a near low since the economy troughed in 2008.  Insiders have remained skeptics of their own corporations despite recent signs of recovery.

IT31 INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RECOVERY TALK

Notable buying:

IT11 INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RECOVERY TALK

Notable selling:

IT2 INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RECOVERY TALK

Source: FinViz

Insider Charts from Insider Cow:

 


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AN UNSTOPPABLE BEAR KILLING MACHINE

AN UNSTOPPABLE BEAR KILLING MACHINE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

A few weeks ago we joked that the SEC had banned all downticks.  That might not sound so funny now as there have been almost zero downticks over the last two months.  Stocks have rallied on 75% of all days and ever 0.5% dip has been aggressively bought into.  This market is an unstoppable bear killing machine.  Equities have reversed their full 1.5% losses from this morning as the “buy the dip” trade continues to dominate every minute of every day.  The truly amazing rally just doesn’t quit:

ES2 AN UNSTOPPABLE BEAR KILLING MACHINE 

 ******

As an aside, you might ask, who ISN’T buying?

Corporate insiders, that’s who. Look at these charts from Insider Cow:

insider buy

insider buy/sell ratio


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INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NEAR ITS LOWS

INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NEAR ITS LOWS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The negative trends in insider buying and selling continued this week as insiders sold a total of $896mm in stock and purchased just $6.3mm.   Both were up from last week’s readings of $824MM in selling and the annual low in buying of $2.1MM.  The 4 week trailing average of purchases remains near its recent lows.

As we’ve previously mentioned, this is a vote of no confidence in the sustainability of the long-term recovery as insiders simply refuse to use their own dollars to buy into this rally.

IT3 INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NEAR ITS LOWS 


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INSIDER BUYING HITS NEW LOW

INSIDER BUYING HITS NEW LOW

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Insider buying cratered in the week ending April 9th as corporate executives refused to buy into the rally after the recent surge in stocks.  Buying has been consistently light since the rally started last March, but was particularly light this week. Total purchases of just $2.1MM was the lowest level during the entire 75% equity rally though the weekly average has ticked slightly higher over the last 8 weeks. Meanwhile, the heavy stream of insider selling continued as insiders unloaded $824mm onto the market.

IT1 INSIDER BUYING HITS NEW LOW

Of course, insiders sell for various reasons so the high level of selling should be taken with a grain of salt, however, the very low levels of buying are clear evidence of skepticism with regards to the sustainability of any recovery.  As evidenced in weak hiring trends and revenue trends corporate executives have yet to see much evidence that this recovery is anything other than a cyclical rebound as opposed to a new secular economic cycle.

Buying was very light this week so there were few notable purchases:

it11 INSIDER BUYING HITS NEW LOW

Notable selling:

it21 INSIDER BUYING HITS NEW LOW

Source: FinViz 


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INSIDERS CONTINUE TO SELL INTO THE RALLY

INSIDERS CONTINUE TO SELL INTO THE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Insiders continue to display a remarkably low level of confidence in the stock market via the use of their own money.  The latest data on insider buying and selling shows the continuing negative trends.  For the week ending April 2nd, insiders sold $421MM while buying just $13.5MM.  Both buying and selling were down substantially from last week, but the discrepancy between the two remains equally large.

There were no notable buying trends this week:

[click on charts to enlarge and go to the Finviz website - Ilene]

it1 INSIDERS CONTINUE TO SELL INTO THE RALLY

Notable selling:

it2 INSIDERS CONTINUE TO SELL INTO THE RALLY

Source: FinViz


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INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NON-EXISTENT

INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NON-EXISTENT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The latest data on insider buying and selling showed little change in the bearishness of corporate insiders.  For the week ending March 26th, insiders bought just $38MM in stocks while at the same selling $999MM.   Both buying and selling were down from last week’s reading (see here).

Insiders have been skeptical of the sustainability of the rally as they have seen meager gains in sales growth over the course of the “recovery”.  While selling has been remarkably high, it is the low levels of buying that remains most worrisome.

Notable buying:

it23 INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NON EXISTENT

Notable selling:

it13 INSIDER BUYING REMAINS NON EXISTENT

 


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Insider buying and selling

By Ilene 

Following up on Pragcap’s article on insider buying and selling (below), here are several charts that show the trends, via Insider Cow:

insider buying

numbers of insider buyers

Insider buy/sell ratio

insider selling in $ 


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Insider buying and selling charts

By Ilene 

Following up on Pragcap’s article on insider buying and selling, here are several charts that show the trends visually from Insider Cow:

insider buying

numbers of insider buyers

Insider buy/sell ratio

insider selling in $


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INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Update on insider activity from Pragcap -- selling still far exceeds buying, confirming my thoughts on Feb. 20 that trends haven’t changed. - Ilene 

INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The recent uptick in stocks has not been met with much enthusiasm by corporate insiders.  In fact, pessimism rules the day in the land of insider buying and selling trends.  For the week ending February 26th insiders sold a total of $1.88B in stock and purchased just $13.22MM.  Selling was up substantially from last week and buying was down substantially from last week.  The selling was the highest level experienced this year.  Interestingly, as the rally has continued insiders have actually increased their selling.

Of course, insiders sell for numerous reasons so it’s foolish to look at insider selling alone, however, the low level of buying tells the real story here.  Insiders simply don’t trust the long-term viability of the equity rally based on the condition of their internal operations.  Perhaps most alarming in this data is the fact that it is not solely a problem in the United States.  As we noted last week, the problem is pervasive in China as well where insider buying and selling trends remain negative.   Clearly, Main Street investors aren’t the only ones aware of the government induced rally in stocks.  The stimulus based recovery in China is apparently causing some concern in the corner offices in Hong Kong as well.

There was no notable buying this week, however, there were some interesting trends in selling.  Sales across the consumer discretionary space we particularly heavy.   Selling was very heavy in Whole Foods (WFMI) where insiders clearly desire to take profits following the 25%+ rally in recent weeks.  Other notable sales included sizable selling by the CFO’s of TJX and VF Corp.   As we’ve previously mentioned, sales by CFO’s are always intriguing because no insider knows the company finances like the CFO.   All notable buying and selling is attached:

it13 INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Notable selling:

it23 INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Source: FinViz 

****

For updated Finviz data, go here for a list of recent buys and sells 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Mind Blowing Economic Charts – First Time Claims, The Stock Market, and The Fed

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Improvement in first time unemployment claims is slowing. Actual, not seasonally manipulated data, including an adjustment for the usual weekly upward revision, shows that the year to year rate of change is on the cusp of a possible upside breakout, which would be good news for stock market bears if it happens.

Initial Unemployment Claims Chart- Click to enlarge

Here’s why it’s mind blowing. I’ve plotted it below on an inverse scale with the S&P 500 overlaid.

Unemployemt Claims and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

That speaks for itself. As the i...



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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

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ETF Selector

US Markets Drop On Italy Fear (EWI, DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...

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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down for the Day and the Week

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 broke its string of four-consecutive weekly gains with loss of 0.63% for the day and 2.48% for the week.

The index is back in the red year-to-date, down 0.35% and 8.09% below the interim high of April 29.

From an intermediate perspective, the index is 85.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 19.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 


Click for a larger image ...

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Zero Hedge

Dallas Fed Latest Economic Contraction Confirmation; Survey Respondents' Gloom Soars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...



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Insider Scoop

Diana Containerships Files To Offer Stock Up To $172.5M -Bloomberg (DCIX)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.

Visit Benzinga >

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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OpTrader

Swing trading virtual portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.  

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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