Halliburton Options Trade Smartly
by Option Review - October 29th, 2010 4:06 pm
Today’s tickers: HAL, CSTR, AMAG & FXI, SPY
HAL - Halliburton Co. – A sharp fall in Thursday’s session for oil services and sloppy cement-mixer Halliburton has not gained much traction at the end of the week. The stock today trades on both sides of unchanged and is currently at $31.71. While the prospects for additional liability are pretty much set out on the table following a report showing it provided BP with an unstable cement mix to surround the Macondo oil well, BP didn’t notice or attempt to rectify the error. Halliburton’s November puts are being sold as the stock stabilizes while the smart trade appears to be selling well out of the money call options expiring in April. Around 4,000 call options at the $36 strike price have traded to the bid telling us that an investor is taking a long stock and short call position or is simply just writing premium. The 52-week high at $35.89 remains a tall order after yesterday’s news making the short position in the calls look like a viable proposition.
CSTR - Coinstar Inc. – Coin and DVD-rental-machine operator Coinstar provided a pop for its shares after reporting surging revenues thanks to growth in its DVD-machine operations located in supermarket chains around the nation. Investors were primed for a dip in profits but were left smiling by a 42% increase in revenues on the movie-rental side. Call options on the stock were equally hot property on Friday after the share price jumped by 23% to $56.86. Formerly out-of-the-money call options expiring in November and which were trading at $1.50 yesterday traded all the way up to $8.00 a piece today despite a 20% slide in options implied volatility, typical after earnings. The share price surge put calls at six option strikes in-to-the-money on Friday. Compared to a 10-day average today’s overall options volume stacks up to more than five-times the norm.…
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DiggHefty Bullish Plays Constructed on Transocean
by Option Review - July 29th, 2010 6:09 pm
Today’s tickers: RIG, AKAM, VPRT, FXI, GMCR, XLP & KR
RIG – Transocean Ltd. – Two massive bullish transactions utilizing nearly 110,000 call options on the provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells indicates at least one big options player is taking a long-term optimistic stance on the stock. RIG’s shares inched up 0.50% this afternoon to trade at $47.00 as of 3:15 pm ET. The nearer-term of the two spreads looks to be a variation on the traditional call butterfly spread because volume at the lower strike price [wing 1] is the same as that used in the body of the butterfly. Typically, a butterfly spread is constructed using a 1X2X1 ratio. The longer-term spread employed in the February 2011 contract looks like a normal butterfly. In this transaction the investor enjoys maximum profits if RIG’s shares surge 38.3% to settle at $65.00 by February expiration day. The transaction involved the purchase of 15,000 calls at the February 2011 $50 strike [wing 1] for an average premium of $5.5250, the sale of 30,000 calls at the February 2011 $65 strike for an average premium of $1.475 [body], and the purchased of 15,000 calls at the higher February 2011 $80 strike for an average premium of $0.425 apiece. The net cost of this transaction amounts to $3.00 per contract. Transocean’s shares must rally 12.8% by February expiration in order for the investor to breakeven on the spread at a share price of $53.00. The investor may accumulate maximum available profits of $12.00 per contract if Transocean’s shares surge 38.3% to $65.00 by expiration day. The spread initiated in the November contract is similar in its bullishness, although differs with respect to the lopsided nature of the wings, time to expiration, and strike price selection. In this trade the investor the purchased 19,500 in-the-money calls at the November $45 strike for an average premium of $6.175, and sold the same number of calls at the higher November $55 strike for an average premium of $2.22 each. The third leg of the trade is half the size, that’s 9,750 calls purchased at the November $65 strike for an average premium of $0.725 apiece. The investor or investors responsible for these transactions are well positioned to benefit handsomely from bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares in the months to come.
AKAM – Akamai Technologies, Inc. –…
Wild Weekly Wrap-Up – The Madness of the Markets (Part 1)
by Phil - May 21st, 2010 11:22 pm
Where do I even begin to go over this week?
I think, to set the proper tone, let’s look at my Thursday morning Alert to Members where I said: "Get out, Get Out, GET OUT of the short-term short-side plays if we get back over the 200 dmas. Take the money and RUN. CASH OUT THE SHORT SIDE. Is that clear? We may not hold these lines but that’s why we have October Disaster Hedges, the shorter-term downside plays are huge winners and should be cashed here – we’ll find something else to short if we fall off this support level. 200 dmas need to be held and those are: Dow 10,250 (8,650 is next major support), S&P 1,100 (900), Nasdaq 2,225 (not there yet! 1,800), NYSE 7,100 (5,500) and Russell 630 (still above! 500)."
We never did hold those levels but, as I mentioned in Friday morning’s post, I thought the end of day sell-off on Thursday was a bit forced, and, in my first Alert of Friday morning I said: "TAKE THOSE SHORT PROFITS OFF THE TABLE!" Now, I am not prone to making statements in all caps in Member Chat - almost never is about how often so this was a pretty important statement. Before that Alert, right at 9:42, I had already called for the SPY $105 calls at $2.45 as our first trade of the day. Those calls finished at $4.11, up 67% for the day so a good start to our expiration day!
A good start and our other day trades did very nicely as well:
- FXI June $39 calls at .98, now $1.28 - up 30%
- DIA May $102 calls at .13, out at .45 – up 246%
- DIA May $101 calls at .95, out at .80 - down 16%
- DIA May $101 calls at .10, out at .80 – up 700%
Of course we followed our strategies and took 1/2 the DIA’s off the table at a double so the other half was a free ride (we like to gamble but we’re not crazy!) but the FXI was the only "keeper" for the day, we’ll see if that was a good idea on Monday. We also took (as I said we would in the morning post) a number of well-hedged, bullish plays on BA (from the post), TNA, TBT (have I mentioned how much I like them lately?), INTC, AAPL, VLO, FCX (I guess we’re done relentlessly shorting them!), XOM and…
Weekend Reading – Now What?
by Phil - May 16th, 2010 9:42 pm
We had a totally exciting week last week!
I was busy this weekend so no Wrap-Up but I did write about 5 pages of commentary under Sage’s $1,000,000 virtual Portfolio article regarding virtual portfolio allocations and scaling strategies - all Members should read that! We were discussing our Disaster Hedges as well which are all well in the money but hardly a double in the bunch so far, which is actually fantastic news if you haven’t entered them yet as you can enter these plays now and still do great if EITHER the market continues lower OR the VIX calms down since it’s the high VIX that is keeping us from making big money. These are October hedges so no one expects them to pay off this early but the fact that you can still get in them even after this dip is a nice break if you intend to start getting bullish and want hedges.
We took shorter-term hedges for more aggressive traders during the last week of April and those, of course, are up very nicely like:
- EDZ June $38/44 bull call spread at $2.80, now $3.50 - up 25%
- EDZ June $35 puts sold for at $1.25, now .70 - up 44% (pair trade)
- FAZ July $12/16 bull call spread at $1.10, now $1.35 - up 18%
- FAZ July $10 puts sold for .70, now .50 – up 28%
- IYR May $52 puts at $1.30 (fell to .79), now $2 - up 54%
- OIH May $131 calls sold for $3.45, now .05 – up 98%
- OIH May $131 calls sold for $3.90, now 05 – up 99%
- QID May $16 calls at .32 (fell to .27), now $1.27 – up 296%
- QID May $15 puts sold for .32 (rose to .37), now .02 - up 94% (pair trade)
- QID June $14/16 bull call spread at $1.15, now $1.50 – up 30%
- TBT Sept $43 puts sold for $1.50, now $3.90 – down 160%
- TBT Sept $43/48 bull call spread at $2.60, now $1.55 – down 36%
- TZA June $6 puts sold for .70 (rose to .94), now .74 - down 5%
- UGL Oct $49/54 bull call spread at $2, now $2.50 – up 25%
- GLD March $90 puts sold for $1.20, now $1.40 - down 17% (pair trade)
- VNO May $80 calls sold at $2.30 (rose to $3.90), now $1.85 – up 19%
As I often say, sometimes the best way to enter a trade is AFTER they are down and…
Smart virtual Portfolio Management III – The $1,000,000 virtual Portfolio (Members Only)
by Phil - May 15th, 2010 6:35 am
You can’t lose what you don’t have.
The reverse is true for people with Millions in a stock virtual portfolio. Phil points out that the reson you don’t run a large hedge fund trying to make 100% gains is that the people who invest in those funds are more interested in what we call "preservation of capital" rather than generating wealth. Generally, the people who have $1M of investable cash to play the markets have already achieved a great deal of success, often by taking their own risks along the way. For most of us, $1M is hard to come by and, while we want to put that money to work – we certainly don’t want it wondering off and joining the circus.
As a high net-worth investor, you need to decide how to diversify your assets to suit your long-term goals. We’re not going to get into that here – let’s just say that if you want to gamble and go for some of our "more exciting" plays, perhaps allocate a portion of the virtual portfolio to those. Whether that’s 5% or 10% or 30% is up to you but it is good to fence off your risk to a sensible, manageable amount that you really can afford to lose while keeping the bulk of your market allocation well diversified and well-hedged.
I have my own 5% Rule. Phil’s famous 5% Rule deals with the predictable movement of stocks in their trading ranges but my 5% Rule, which Phil also agrees with is simply "Do not put more than 5% of your virtual portfolio in the stock of any one company!” This is so much easier said than done for many reasons!!
[1] Transition to Large Numbers
Moving from a 5 or 6 figure account to a 7 figure account has a profound impact on many traders. In fact, our friend Dr. Brett refers to the effect “performance anxiety” can have on a virtual portfolio and notes that one of the causes is the responsibility felt by traders as larger dollar amounts are traded. Phil advocates a system of "purging" Short-Term virtual Portfolio gains when they gets too large and shifting money into safer investments in a Long-Term virtual Portfolio – it is good to have a strategy for balancing out your holdings, not just target goals.
While it might be acceptable to put 15% of your $10,000 virtual portfolio on that long call you just KNOW will…
Options on Halliburton Get Messy
by Option Review - April 29th, 2010 4:20 pm
Today’s tickers: HAL, IPG, AMGN, BP, COF, FXI, OMX, NEM & FSLR
HAL – Halliburton Co. – Making sense of options activity on oil company, Halliburton Co., this afternoon is difficult due to the chaotic and seemingly pattern-less trading taking place on the stock. Investors exchanged more than 200,000 contracts on HAL by 3:00 pm (ET), which represents approximately 37% of total existing open interest on the stock of 541,062 contracts. Frenzied options trading was catalyzed by news the firm is assisting in ongoing investigations regarding the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as HAL reportedly provided a variety of oilfield services to Deepwater Horizon rig, which is the rig that caught fire and sank last week. Options volume and options implied volatility on Halliburton jumped while its shares slipped 6.3% to $31.26. The surge in demand for option contracts on the stock, coupled with uncertainty regarding possible repercussions stemming from HAL’s connection to the situation in the Gulf of Mexico, lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility 25.4% to 44.13% as of 3:25 pm (ET). Trading activity is heaviest in the May contract with decent volume building in both call and put options. Some bearish investors bracing for continued share price erosion purchased about 2,200 puts at the lowest available strike – the May $25 strike price – for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Buying interest in put options was also apparent at the May $26 strike where 1,800 puts were picked up for an average premium of $0.20 each. May $29 strike puts were the most heavily trafficked as more than 16,700 contracts changed hands by 3:22 pm (ET), versus previously existing open interest of just 2,743 contracts at that strike. But, the put action was certainly not one-sided as investors took to buying and selling the contracts, with buyers gaining the right to sell the stock at $29.00, and sellers receiving an average premium of $0.81 per contract in exchange for bearing the risk of having shares of the underlying stock put to them at $29.00. Similar two-way trading traffic in calls took place at out-of-the-money strike prices as some traders threw in the towel on bullish stances expiring in May. Meanwhile, contrarian players purchased out-of-the-money calls, perhaps to prepare for a potential rebound in the price per share ahead of expiration next month.
IPG – Interpublic Group of Cos., Inc. – Advertising and…
Bullish Options Investor Enacts Call Spread on iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund
by Option Review - April 19th, 2010 4:07 pm
Today’s tickers: FXI, CDNS, UTX, GS, DGX, GDP & MRK
FXI – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund – Shares of the FXI, an exchange-traded fund that seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index, which is an index consisting of 25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese companies, fell 1% during the trading day to stand at $41.88. The slight decline in the price of the underlying shares did not, however, deter one options investor from initiating a large bullish transaction in the August contract. It looks like the trader enacted a plain-vanilla debit call spread to position for a sharp rally in the fund’s share price by expiration. The investor purchased 10,000 calls at the August $45 strike for a premium of $1.38 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher August $50 strike for $0.40 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.98 per contract. Therefore, the bullish player stands ready to accrue maximum potential profits of $4.02 per contract in the event that shares of the FXI rally more than 19.3% to exceed $50.00 by expiration day in August. The trader starts making money if the China fund’s shares surpass the effective breakeven share price of $45.98 in the next several months to expiration.
CDNS – Cadence Design Systems, Inc. – Cadence Design Systems, a firm which licenses software, sells or leases hardware technology and provides engineering and education services, experienced a 1% rally in the value of its shares to $7.18 during the trading day. The increase in the price of the underlying shares enticed bullish investors to populate November contract options on the stock. It looks like one investor initiated a bullish stance on Cadence Design Systems by selling short 7,000 in-the-money put contracts at the November $7.5 strike for an average premium of $0.975 apiece. The put seller keeps the full amount of premium pocketed on the transaction if CDNS shares rally above $7.50 by expiration day in November. The trader is apparently happy to have shares of the underlying stock put to him at an effective price of $6.525 each should the put contracts remain in-the-money at expiration. Options implied volatility is down 10.1% to 36.15% as of 3:20 pm (ET). Cadence is slated to report its first-quarter results next week after the closing bell on April…
Short Strangle Strategist Suggests Range-Bound Shares for China Fund
by Option Review - April 16th, 2010 4:12 pm
Today’s tickers: FXI, GFI, MCO, KWK, GME, JDSU & SVU
FXI – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund – A large-volume short strangle enacted on the FXI, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price and yield performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index – an index designed to mirror the performance of 25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese companies, implies one big options player expects shares of the underlying fund to train within a specified range through May expiration. Shares of the FXI are down more than 4% to $42.12 as of 12:15 pm (ET). The strangle-player sold 25,000 calls at the May $44 strike for a premium of $0.93 each, and sold 25,000 puts at the lower May $42 strike for $1.09 apiece. Gross premium pocketed on the transaction amounts to $2.02 per contract. The investor responsible for the short strangle keeps the full $2.02 premium received today as long as the FXI’s share price remains with the range of $42.00 to $44.00 through expiration day next month. The short position in both call and put options exposes the trader to losses in the event that shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $46.02, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven price of $39.98, ahead of May expiration. Options implied volatility is up 11.4% to 30.82% as of 12:20 pm (ET).
GFI – Gold Fields Ltd. – Shares of the gold mining company are down more than 5.2% to $12.35 today, but bullish options trading on the stock suggests one trader is itching for a rebound in the price of the underlying shares by July expiration. Gold Fields received an upgrade to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’ earlier in the week at RBC Capital. The optimistic individual sold 7,000 calls at the July $15 strike for a premium of $0.20 apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of the same number of in-the-money calls options at the April $12 strike for $0.90 each. The net cost of getting long the near-term in-the-money options amounts to $0.70 per contract. The parameters of this transaction somewhat mimic those of a covered call strategy. This is because the in-the-money calls in the April contract – assuming shares are able to resist slipping beneath $12.00 through the end of the trading session – allow the investor to take ownership of shares of the underlying stock at an effective price…
Optimistic individual Initiates Mammoth Bullish Risk Reversal Play on Conseco
by Option Review - March 31st, 2010 6:20 pm
Today’s tickers: CNO, OSIP, HIG, FXI, JDSU, ARQL, GNW, TEVA, KO & UBS
CNO – Conseco, Inc. – The holding company for a number of insurance companies, such as Colonial Penn Life Insurance Co. and Washington National Insurance Co., popped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner late in the session after a massive bullish risk reversal was established on the stock in the January 2011 contract. Conseco’s shares declined 0.80% during the course of the trading day to stand at $6.18. It looks like one optimistic options player sold 33,727 puts at the January 2011 $5.0 strike for a premium of $0.50 apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of 33,727 calls at the same strike for $1.80 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $1.30 per contract. Thus, the investor responsible for the reversal is prepared to amass profits if Conseco’s shares rally through the breakeven price of $6.30 ahead of expiration day in January. The 67,454 contracts involved in the spread trump existing open interest on the stock of 48,756 lots.
OSIP – OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – The outline of a slightly lopsided iron condor appeared in the May contract on OSI Pharmaceuticals, indicating one options investor expects shares of the biotechnology company to trade within a specified range through expiration. OSIP’s shares surrendered 0.85% during afternoon trading to stand at $59.55 perhaps after The Wall Street Journal reported that Astellas Pharma, Inc. is extending its tender offer for OSI Pharmaceuticals – valued at $3.5 billion – by three weeks to April 23, 2010. The investor responsible for the iron condor play essentially enacted two credit spreads, one using put options and the other calls, in order to pocket options premium. On the call side, the trader shed 4,000 contracts at the May $60 strike for a premium of $1.90 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls at the higher May $62.5 strike for $0.90 each. As for the puts, the investor sold 4,000 lots at the May $55 strike for a premium of $0.94 per contract, marked against the purchase of 4,000 puts at the lower May $50 strike for $0.62 each. Notice that the put credit spread is wider than the spread on the call side, which creates a lopsided iron condor in this case. The net credit pocketed by the trader amounts to $1.32…
Visa-Bulls Covet Call Options
by Option Review - March 30th, 2010 6:43 pm
Today’s tickers: V, RDC, VALE, EEM, STX, XRT, FXI, VZ, IPI & MMM
V – Visa, Inc. – Call options on credit card company, Visa, Inc., are in high demand today by investors who appear to be expecting a sharp rally in the price of the underlying stock by April expiration. Visa’s share price increased 0.85% to $91.00 in afternoon trading. Bullish options players purchased about 4,000 calls at the April $95 strike for an average premium of $0.60 apiece. Call-buyers at the April $95 strike stand ready to accrue profits if Visa’s shares rise 5% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $95.60 by expiration day in April. Other optimistic options traders picked up approximately 5,000 calls at the higher April $100 strike for an average premium of $0.15 each. These investors make money if shares of the underlying stock surge 10% to exceed the breakeven price of $100.15 by expiration.
RDC – Rowan Companies, Inc. – Shares of the onshore and offshore contract drilling company leapt up 6.4% to briefly touch a new 52-week high of $29.40 in afternoon trading perhaps on news Rowan has “made no change in plans to shed its onshore oil and gas drilling business and LeTourneau Technologies Inc. manufacturing unit to focus on offshore projects.” Rowan’s shares are still net up for the session by 1.95% to $28.17 as of 2:50 pm (ET). Bullish options traders scooped up nearly 8,000 call options at the April $30 strike for an average premium of $0.45 per contract. Call-buyers are positioned to make money if Rowan’s shares jump 8% from the current value of $28.17 to breach the breakeven point at $30.45 ahead of April expiration day. Investors exchanged more than 25,500 contracts on the stock throughout the session, which represents 46.75% of total open interest on RDC of 54,546 lots.
VALE – Vale S.A. – Covered-call selling on Brazilian iron ore producer, Vale S.A., indicates one investor is expecting shares of the underlying stock to continue to rally to new highs for the year through May expiration. Vale’s shares gained 2% earlier in the current session to attain a new 52-week high of $32.66, exceeding yesterday’s new high of $32.00. The so-called buy-write strategy observed today took place at the May $33 strike where one optimistic individual shed 10,000 calls for a premium of $1.33 apiece. At the same time, the investor purchased an equivalent…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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