Monthly Trade Set-Up
by Chart School - June 12th, 2010 6:08 pm
Monthly Trade Set-Up
Courtesy of Allan
Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:
Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]:
(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.
What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?
I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.
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Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene
Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.
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DiggThat Was About As Fun As….
by Chart School - February 11th, 2010 8:15 pm
In reading Binve’s market update, keep in mind he’s bearish and short the market, so a good move in his eyes is down. See Binve’s previous Elliott Wave analysis here. - Ilene
That Was About As Fun As….
Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis
Here is my current count. The day sucked but was not as bad as it could have been, closing below the 1081 resistance. Good. It was not a bullish runaway. And divergence was showing up the last hour. Also good.
So there are two likely, basic options: triple zigzag or A-B-C with a big triangle.
Both yield similar targets based on Fib ratios. The lower target (which was met and where we consolidated at) was 1076-1078. The next target is 1084-1087. That is now where I think the move is likely to hit tomorrow.
But no matter what happens, we better close well below 1081 tomorrow (below 1060 would be lovely) otherwise we are set up to have a very bullish week next week.
[click on chart to enlarge]
Germany’s DAX: Insight Into Europe’s Leading Economy
by ilene - September 17th, 2009 1:27 pm
Note: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have announced the beginning of their "FreeWeek event, where they throw open the doors to some of their most popular paid services to non-subscribers for one week." This time, they’re offering complete access to The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update and The European Short Term Update. – Ilene
FreeWeek Kicks Off With Germany: Click HERE to sign on and get invaluable insight into Europe’s #1 market.
Germany’s DAX: FREE Insight Into Europe’s Leading Economy
Courtesy of Elliott Wave International
It’s one of the first rules in the book of mainstream economic wisdom: a country’s economy is the thermometer which "reads" its stock market’s temperature. If financial conditions are heating up, stocks rise; if they are cooling down, stocks fall. Were it so simple — millionaires wouldn’t make up a measly .15% of the global population.
Obviously, there’s a major flaw with this logic; namely, it isn’t true. Time and again, stock prices smolder to near boiling even as economic growth chills to the bone. (The opposite also holds: Stock prices cool down even as the economy is on fire.)
Take, for instance, Germany’s main stock index, the DAX 30. On August 13, Europe’s number one economy reported a .3% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) — Germany’s first quarter of growth since January 2008. Soon after, the DAX began to rally and finished the day at a fresh, ten-month high.
In no time at all, every financial media outlet from Wall Street to la-la land had their story: "Germany’s DAX rose nearly 1% on the GDP data. The big picture will be one of ongoing gradual recovery through 2010." (LA Times)
One problem: the DAX’s bullish flame has been burning since the index landed at a two-year low on March 9, 2009. YET — the economic data over those six months has been about as "hot" as the Arctic Circle. Here, the following news stories from the time say plenty:
- March 24, Wall Street Journal: "There’s a slew of evidence that Germany is in an economic freefall: A 19% drop in industrial output, a 23% decline in exports, a 35% drop in new manufacturing orders, and on. The numbers we’re seeing are just mind-boggling."
- April 30, New York Times reveals a 17% year-over-year decline in Germany’s exports and writes, "With 47% of its GDP generated by
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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