A fair amount of economic data today that shows absolutely no clear picture of where the economy might be going. Let’s rip through it quickly.
Retail sales were up 0.5% in May over April. Most of the increase is attributable to rising gasoline prices. Lots of stimulus money in the form of lower withholding started hitting in April and May. The consumer seems compelled to save not spend. (Census Bureau, WSJ Analysis)
Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 601,000 last week. The four-week moving average dropped 10,500 to 621,750. (MarketWatch)
The World Bank expects the global economy to shrink by 3% this year. Previously they had forecast a decline of 1.75%. (Reuters)
Foreclosure filings in May dropped 6% from April but they were still 18% above the level of May 2008. There is simply no improvement in this sector of the economy. Despite a perceived rebound in sales and some very hot markets in lower priced homes, the inventory is most likely not going to be brought down in any appreciable amount once the new wave of foreclosures works its way through the pipeline. (Reuters)
One of the few guys I trust, Paul Volcker, had these thoughts: (From the WSJ)
Paul Volcker, Chairman of U.S. President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said Thursday it is reasonable to expect that economic growth will resume in the U.S. late this year, but warned that a strong recovery is unlikely.
Addressing a financial forum in Beijing, the former Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve said that the U.S. faces “a long slog, with continuing high levels of unemployment.”
Volcker, known for successfully bringing inflation under control during his term at the Federal Reserve, said that the current economic situation “is not an environment in which inflationary pressures are at all likely for some time to come.”
In his prepared remarks, Volcker said that, although there will be no alternative to the U.S. dollar in the foreseeable future, “the ultimate logic of a globalized financial system is a world currency.”
“The theoretical premise that a system of floating exchange rates would promote swift and efficient
Improvement in first time unemployment claims is slowing. Actual, not seasonally manipulated data, including an adjustment for the usual weekly upward revision, shows that the year to year rate of change is on the cusp of a possible upside breakout, which would be good news for stock market bears if it happens.
Initial Unemployment Claims Chart- Click to enlarge
Here’s why it’s mind blowing. I’ve plotted it below on an inverse scale with the S&P 500 overlaid.
Unemployemt Claims and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge
Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...
The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...
Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...
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February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
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