WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead
by ilene - September 15th, 2009 11:35 pm
WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
The Video Version:
For those of you who prefer text……
You have heard me talk about this before.
I have written Tickers for more than two years.
I have sent multiple petitions to our Congress, and you have signed them.
I raised an unbelievable amount of Hell when TARP was under debate, arguing that we must allow those banks that are underwater to collapse and we must force the bad debt from the system.
The fact of the matter is that you have been lied to for the last decade about our economic state, and if we do not divert from the road we are on our economy, our monetary system and our government WILL COLLAPSE.
Not "might collapse."
Not "might get bad."
WILL COLLAPSE.
It is a mathematical certainty, and here is the proof.
First, I present the graph of our economy – GDP and Debt, from the 1950s onward. This chart you’ve seen before (click any of these for a larger copy)
Now I want to present two charts – the first being a simple mathematical chart of two functions – a GDP that grows at 5% annually and debt that grows at the actual compound rate it has grown since 1953, 8.7946%.
I started both debt and GDP at the same value, $10,000, for the purpose of this series (even though in fact debt was higher than GDP.)
You’ll notice that due to the fact the debt isn’t a constant (and neither is GDP) these are not exact matches – but they’re pretty close!
Now let’s go forward 20 years, maintaining the same assumptions. That is, if you and your wife or husband, or boyfriend or girlfriend sleep together tonight and conceive a child, this is what our economy will look like in terms of debt and GDP at the approximate time they go to college:
You think so eh? Debt outstanding will be six times greater in 20 years. GDP will be three times greater, but having started from a much lower level, will of course continue to lag.
Do you really believe that those interest payments can be made?
Look at that chart.
Now look up above at the top chart.
That is reality right here, right now, today.
Tell
Tags: debt, Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead, Economy, GDP, monetary system, TARP
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
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