Whistling Past The Graveyard?
by Chart School - May 28th, 2010 12:50 pm
Whistling Past The Graveyard?
Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker
In less than two minutes, here it is….
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DiggSPY Intraday Sept 25 Shows Triangle and Mega Divergence
by Chart School - September 27th, 2009 8:54 pm
[Note: Adam at Market Club just sent out this new video on Crude, Trend Lines, and the Fibonacci retracement tool.]
Now, Binve brings us another "massive chart dump" and he’s not kidding. Here’s all you want to know about charts leading into next week’s trading. - Ilene
Another Massive Chart Dump / P2 Analysis Wrap-Up
Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis
I wrote the first iteration of this post here (A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up) on Aug 29. There are three main reasons why I wrote that post at that time, saying that the end of P2 [end of the up trend] would be soon:
1) There was a 5 wave count up from the Aug 18 low that could possibly have served as a C wave to finish P2 (obviously it didn’t)
2) There was a possible ending diagonal setup, identified here: So the Diagonal Walks Up to the Two and Says…,
3) Our first born child was due any day (was actually born on Sept 3) and I knew I would not have time to watch the market anytime around then. So I figured I might as well write a post calling for the top soon, because I might not get a chance while it was actually happening 
. LOL!
Well, as we all know, Mr. Market does not do anything obviously. And since then we had a big pullback, then a big rally, then a dramatic and confusing spike with a large pullback. … which brings us to now.
So what is up?
That is what I will explore in this post. I will most assuredly not be getting this 100% right. But in the past few weeks we have received a few glimpses of what Mr. Market’s intentions may be. And I will give my interpretation. Hopefully it is useful, or at the very least, an entertaining read.
… On to the analysis!
…. And by "Chart Dump", I don’t mean all these charts belong in the toilet.
I wish Primary 2 was done, I *want* Primary 2 to be done. Why? Several reasons. Mainly because this rally is "fake". It is a countertrend rally in a overall secular bear market. And countertrend rallies are fine. In fact, they can be fun! Traders can make money…
A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up
by Chart School - August 30th, 2009 9:40 pm
A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up
Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis
…. And by "Chart Dump", I don’t mean all these charts belong in the toilet
So like I said on Friday, I wish Primary 2 was done, I *want* Primary 2 to be done. I just don’t think it is done. But I do think it is very close to being done, next week looks very likely for the top.
But the whole point of this post is to look at a whole host of indices, sectors, asset classes, and sentiment indicators to show that there are some very substantial divergences taking place. Some of the "leader indices" show that they have already potentially topped (are not making higher highs with the broader markets). The Dollar and the VIX may have already bottomed. Volume is drying up (or at least substantially declining) in most of the indicies. In short a lot of the signs that we expect to see with Primary Wave 2 have occurred, and things are more or less "on track" for a large trend change in equities.
The other reason for this massive update this weekend is that our first born child is due any day now, and my blogging and chart updates will drop off dramatically next month. binve’s life is about to get a lot more interesting.
This post contains a lot of charts that I show often, but every chart is completely updated with new annotations and analysis. I believe it is a useful post and tells the picture of the markets from a macro view. Enjoy!
The Primary Wave 2 Checklist
There are several signals that we should see that help to let us know we are at the end of Primary Wave 2. There are some characteristics that Elliott (and then Frost and Prechter later) put forth that would describe some of the technical, fundamental and sentiment aspects of Wave 2. Here are some of those (modified to be bullish, as this Wave 2 is bullish):
From EWP: “Second Waves often retrace so much of Wave one that most of the losses endured are gained back by the time it ends. At this point investors are thoroughly convinced that the bull market is here to stay. Second waves typically end on very low volume…
A Quick Daily Look at Google and Intel
by Chart School - July 19th, 2009 12:44 pm
A Quick Daily Look at Google GOOG and Intel INTC
Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade
With Google (GOOG) announcing earnings that ‘disappointed’ Thursday night and Intel’s (INTC) earnings earlier in the week surprised, let’s take a quick look as of July 17th at these two market moving stocks.
First, with Google (GOOG):
Google, like Apple (AAPL), has been in a very strong uptrend off the early March lows. With only one pullback before the June highs, price rose almost without pausing.
The run-up into the June high was tremendously powerful (that’s why people trade Google – for the action and volatility) which terminated in a doji that gapped up into an exhaustion/reversal bar just above $440.
We had an “abc” move down off those highs into what appears to have formed a “double top” at prior resistance with a slight negative momentum divergence.
Notice how volume spiked Thursday as traders/investors took positions in expectation of blow-away profits (similar perhaps to Intel). Playing the ‘earnings game’ can be very risky, as expectations were not met by Google’s latest announcement. We are now in a ‘pullback/retracement’ mode.
Next, on to Intel (INTC):
As opposed to Google, expectations for Intel (INTC) were lower, and so better than expected numbers caused the stock to surge, driving the S&P minis up nine points after Tuesday’s close (which preceded a trend day on Wednesday… though strangely enough Intel formed a doji on Wednesday and a ‘trend day’ on Thursday).
Volume surged to a new 2009 high as did price and the 3/10 momentum oscillator – all signs of fresh and enduring momentum that should lead to higher prices in the established up-trend (though expect a pullback/retracement instead of a parabolic rally – the new momentum high indicates a short-term overbought reading, as do all oscillators).
So it’s a different picture as painted by two market leaders.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Photo: A Winning Miss, Buxom woman rolling dice, copyrighted by Art Photo Co., Grand Rapids, Mich, Wikipedia.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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