Posts Tagged
‘Bulls’
by ilene - August 16th, 2010 2:35 pm
Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds
The sentiment and media news flow is so uniformly Bearish that I think the herd is running hard--and that makes me hesitant to join it.
I am seriously demanding you read the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below before reading further because I am conducting a highly speculative thought experiment, NOT offering investment advice. This is the freely offered ramblings of an amateur observer, and nothing else.
The only problem with being Bearish on the stock market now is that everyone else is Bearish, too. Frankly, that’s extremely Bullish. In my many years of observing the stock market, it seems the ideal time to go short is when complacency is running high and bad news is being discounted--say, just like the state of the market in late April, 2010, just before the wheels fell off and the market began its slide to July lows. (Never mind the "flash crash.")
The reverse is also true. The time to get Bullish is when everybody hates stocks, loves bonds and junk bonds, when the financial media is groaning under the weight of Bearish commentary and charts and the few remaining Bulls are dismissed as cheerleaders or mocked as perma-Bulls, and when various charts, historical data and omens all predict that a crash is just around the corner.
That’s what bottoms look like, not tops. Yet the herd is running fast and hard, expecting a crash or a sharp decline in September and October, because that’s what "should happen" for a number of good reasons: the economy sucks, and historically the market tanks in those months.
Except when it doesn’t. How many times does the stock market do what it "should" when almost everyone expects it to?
Let me put it another way: If you really think the market will crash or tank bigtime in mid-August or September, then when do you sell? Do you wait around for the crash? Heck no. You sell long before the anointed window of crashability opens.
In other words, everybody who wanted to sell has already sold. If everybody that wanted to sell has already sold, then who’s left to sell off hard enough to crash the market?
We all expect the market to crash or decline, so we sell, but some mysterious group of clueless money managers who have read…
Tags: bears, bullish case for stocks, Bulls, media, sentiment, Stock Market, stocks
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by ilene - June 16th, 2010 5:06 pm
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker
I don’t care if you trade forex, stocks, commodities or bonds – if you’re out here running money in any capacity then you’re braving the Risk On, Risk Off training regimen that the Market Miyagi is putting us through. It changes daily or bi-daily, but damn if I don’t feel like a pinball on my last ricochet before I head home each night.
Early in the morning, Risk On is signaled by positive economic data points out of China. The next thing you know, the euro’s being short-squeezed putting pressure on the dollar while US Steel ($X), Freeport Mac ($FCX) and the rest of the industrial-cyclicals are dancing around the maypole with streamers and confetti.
The very next day it becomes Risk Off as the TV studios in Englewood Cliffs welcome the Performing Bears fresh from the Moscow Circus. Futures are the blood-red opposite of the prior day’s close as the Dollar, the Vix, Gold and Treasuries puff up their chests.
- Monday the bulls blast a hole in the sky
- Tuesday the bears say ‘The End is Nigh’
- Wednesday risk assets are all the rage
- Thursday fear is back on the front page
- Etc.
I’ve caught a few of these turns in both directions but there are simply too many to risk catching them all. Like most patterns, once the crowd catches on and learns to play, it gets even more difficult. We may not be there yet, but soon.
"Risk On, Risk Off. Buy Danielson, Sell Danielson."
And the Market Miyagi stands off in the distance with his arms folded across his chest, grunting his approval at our attempts to run the gauntlet.
Tags: bears, Bulls, risk, Stock Market, volatility
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by ilene - April 15th, 2010 7:54 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Sentiment data is surging this week. The Investor’s Intelligence poll is showing a new high in bullishness and a new low in bearishness. 18.9% of advisers tracked in the polling are bearish on stocks. Bullishness has now surged to 51.1%. Bullish sentiment is surging versus last week’s reading of 48.9%.
The latest Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey is showing similar optimism. 71% of the respondents believe that earnings will jump 10% or more over the next 12 months. This is up dramatically from 53% in March. The survey also showed that 52% of managers are now overweight equities versus just 33% in February. Michael Hartnett, Chief Equity Strategist at B of A Merrill Lynch says the Goldilocks scenario is priced into stocks:
“April’s survey shows a growing number of investors envisaging a Goldilocks scenario of above trend growth and benign inflation. The findings are consistent with the view that the US consumer, far from remaining in intensive care, is on the path back to good health.”
Today’s AAII poll showed the same trend in wild bullishness. Bullish sentiment surged to 48.5%. This is the highest bullish sentiment since the beginning of the year. Charles Rotblut at AAII notes that the current skew between bulls and bears is consistent with periods prior to a pull-back, but not representing “irrational exuberance”:
“The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment is at +19. This is a level that has correlated with the past few market pullbacks, though is not a level that suggests irrational exuberance.”
Source: AAII, Investorsintelligence.com
Tags: bears, bullishness, Bulls, investor optimism, sentiment data, Stock Market
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by ilene - March 17th, 2010 5:19 pm
Pragcap looked and looked and looked and found it. One lone bank afloat in bull-land sea sees risk in the market waters. – Ilene
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
It wasn’t easy to find in this sea of bulls, but there is actually a bank out there that is not full-blown bullish following the huge rally of the last month. Morgan Stanley says investors should prepare for a sell-off in the coming weeks as the market has gotten ahead of itself. Their equity analysts say the risks have risen in the near-term as sentiment swings wildly positive (see here) and risk assets run ahead of themselves.
Morgan Stanley says these two risks could overshadow the market in the coming weeks as investors adjust their portfolios to account for the large discrepancy between bulls/bears and risk assets versus lower risk assets. According to Morgan Stanley the put/call ratio represents overly bullish sentiment levels that are historically followed by sell-offs. In addition, the sign of excessive risk can be best seen in the run-up in the small cap vs. large cap ratio. Risk assets, represented by the Russell here, have surged to their highest ratio in terms of large caps in the last 12 months:
Source: Morgan Stanley
Tags: Bulls, market, Morgan Stanley, put-call ratio, sentiment
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by ilene - September 30th, 2009 7:53 pm
Here’s a MadHedge post originally written last Wednesday when the market all at once started dropping after the Fed’s statement. – Ilene
September 28, 2009
Courtesy of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Featured Trades: (SPX), (AONE), (IRDM)
1) Wow! Risk reversals can be such a bitch! It was like someone flipped a switch at precisely 3:30 p.m. in New York, and suddenly the rally was over. The sell recommendations from market timers poured out like confetti at a New York ticker tape parade. The pundits, talking heads, and faux financial reporters offered many possible explanations. Was it the disappointing housing data, a waffling Fed statement, end Q3 profit taking, or the autumnal equinox? Perhaps it was the Business Week cover the saying the market would continue going up. The harsh reality is that the market fell simply because of its own sheer weight. PE multiples of 20 in the face of flat revenue growth, tightfisted banks, a catatonic consumer, imploding commercial real estate market, an approaching tsunami of new home foreclosures, and a whole raft of government stimulus programs about to expire, is not exactly a springboard for even high prices. What is fascinating is how all global risk assets fell in unison, from gold, to stocks, to private debt, to currencies, as I have long predicted. The only place to hide is cash. The market may take another run at the highs before year end. But the burden of proof has shifted from the bears to the bulls.
2) The spectacular debut of the IPO for A123 Systems (AONE), a maker of high powered, quick recharging lithium ion phosphate batteries using advanced nanophoshate technology, put a great shining spotlight on a sector I have been harping about all year (search my data base for “Butch Cassidy” by clicking here ). The initial price talk was at $8, the IPO came out at $13.50, and the first day of trading took it up to a meteoric 43% to $19.20 on the first day! I had a flashback to the dot.com boom. Where are the gold flecks on the sushi, my free IPO hat,…
Tags: AONE, bears, Bulls, Chile’s Sociedad Quimica Y Minera (SQM), Fed statement, IRDM, Mad Hedge Fund Trader, SPX, Stock Market
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by ilene - September 20th, 2009 12:54 am
Courtesy of Christopher Fountain of For What It’s Worth
Ya gotta love a horse race. Here’s an article from the New York Times that interviews five different analysts and gets six different opinions on where the market’s headed. I think this guy, for instance, is nuts – reminds me of a lot of real estate agents I know. But hey, he could be right, and so could they. I’m not betting on it.
Despite this grim backdrop, Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, a stock market research firm in Westport, Conn., believes that we are in the early stages of a classic bull market that has plenty of room to run.
“At any juncture during a bull market over the last 50 years you could point to economic problems,” he said. “The obvious problems aren’t the ones that I worry about.” In his view, the economic weakness has been documented so well that the market has already taken it into account. “The negatives are right in front of your nose,” he said. “The market is looking past it.”
Tags: bears, Bulls, Stock Market
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by Chart School - September 17th, 2009 2:21 am
Here are a few quick posts by Tim Knight at Slope of Hope. - Ilene
Or……..how I learned to stopped worrying and love the bull.
I bought a very large position in SSO earlier today for a couple of reasons:
- I don’t get my jollies out of losing money;
- The OPEX week clearly has import;
- I was impressed and convinced by Fujisan’s post last night, calling for – if memory serves – a push to 1086 by Friday.
I am having fewer and fewer compunctions about buying select stocks. That is evident from my watch lists.
One cause for concern for the bulls remains…………..volume! Just take a look at the volume graph; it’s simply pathetic.
It is generally true that prices climb higher at a far slower rate than they drop. This rally, however, has been a remarkable exception. The push higher has been explosive, and it has pushed higher with just about the same timetable and force as the drop itself.
The question, of course, is: when (if ever) will it end?
There are as many opinions as there are traders, but a few general camps would be, using the example of the Russell 2000 above:
- It has another 10% to go, and it will happen quickly. That would be painful for the bears, but I would hasten to point out that, at that level, the Russell would have completely retraced to the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern spanning three years whose beauty would make bears (if there are any left by then) weep tears of joy.
- It’s done climbing and will start falling. This has been uttered so many times by so many parties (including, I admit, a few times by me) that it’s not even worth considering anymore. The entire, "OK, now………….errr………OK, NOW!………..oh, wait…………….errr, NOW!" gets really, really old.
- We’re in a major new bull market and it’s simply going to keep pushing its way through to progressively higher prices.
For the bears out there who would like some encouraging news, the semiconductor index – which is a helpful bellweather – is looking like it is approaching a huge area of resistance. This is why I bought SSG yesterday.
…
Tags: bears, Bulls, market rally, SOX
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by Chart School - July 14th, 2009 9:36 pm
Hi All – we’re going to be posting exciting articles on charting and technical analysis here with Dave Fry’s nightly updates. Please check this section frequently and let us know what you think! - Ilene
Courtesy of Tim Knight at Slope of Hope
I’m hearing a lot of folks toss a phrase around attributed to Joe Granville: "If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong!"
Ummm, I’m not sure how many of you have data on Mr. Granville’s performance, but Mark Hulbert noted that The Granville Market Letter "is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest’s rankings for performance over the past 25 years – having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis." So I wouldn’t go tattooing everything he says on your forehead or anything.
The "obvious" thing these days is the head and shoulders pattern on the S&P. I admit, this thing has been exasperating. Before the market opened on Monday, it seemed ready to fulfill its destiny, but then Ms. Whitney decided to show up.
The above is the /ES, which incorporates the after-hours surge credited to INTC’s earnings release. We’re at a dangerous zone here. A cross above 928.25 on the /ES would put the final nail in the coffin on this pattern. But until then, I urge you remember a lesson from BRCM in 2000.
At the time, this stock also had a similarly exciting pattern.
Yet it wouldn’t seem to break 130 as it "should" have. One day it even went beneath 130 and then climbed right back up again. You can imagine how the bears were going insane with this stock as its freakish second right shoulder was formed.
The point I want to make is that sometimes these topping patterns take longer to play out than we would like. You have to just be patient sometimes. My point is better made with BRCM, though. I’ve tinted in the (now tiny) pattern which presaged what was to come.
Anyway, I had fallen back in love with the market, but the first couple of days of this week have turned me cold in a big, big hurry. It’ll be interesting to see how tomorrow stacks up when it’s finally over. As of this moment, it certainly looks like another slam-dunk for the bulls.
Tags: broadcom, Bulls, charts, Head and Shoulders, Stock Market
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by ilene - June 11th, 2009 3:08 pm
Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade
I mentioned earlier in my post “So This is What Resistance Looks Like” where I noted that 950 was becoming increasingly difficult for the bulls to clear – they still haven’t cleared that level. Let’s step inside the 30 min chart on the S&P 500 to see the recent price action and current structure.
Though we flirted intraday on the open of June 5th, price hasn’t breached the 950 level – in fact, I’m surprised at how tight a level price has coiled in the 950 to 930 zone.
Until we break one way or the other out of this range, the price structure and trading tactics are clear – play long and short within the range once price hits an extreme in the range.
You might even want to avoid swing trading in this environment until we do get a price break, which would be expected to result in a trend (or momentum) move.
The 3/10 Oscillator is becoming useless in a flat momentum environment – so are the 20 and 50 EMAs on this timeframe.
Remember, during flat market conditions (triangles, ranges) oscillators (like the RSI or Stochastic, etc) become of value in highlighting possible overbought/oversold conditions to initiate trades.
Look closer and follow the price – do you really need an oscillator to show you overbought and oversold conditions in a clean consolidation as we’re having now?
So until we break above 950 or beneath 930, continue to watch the structure closely and lower your expectations.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Tags: 950 on the SP500, Bulls, resistance
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January 3rd, 2012 8:20 am
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Ray Dalio has created a machine at hedge fund Bridgewater – not only have assets surpassed $120B, the fund continues to churn out some fantastic results for investors. Through end of August last year, the fund was up 25% YTD (and that was after an awful August for markets, and before the stampede upward of October); this after a 44% gain in 2010. Longer term, ...
more from Mark
December 28th, 2011 5:24 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
The US Dollar was up and the market was down on minimal volume. And yup, that's about the extent of today's action. The biggest gainer on my watch list of 125 securities was Bankrate (RATE) with a paltry +0.8% return. Updated market charts below. See you tomorrow!
...
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November 9th, 2011 5:48 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:
DIA), (NYSEARCA:
SPY), (
NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:
IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...
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November 4th, 2011 5:13 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Markets dropped slightly lower today on G-20 news, mixed economic reports, and Grecian woes.
After the confusing market action on Wall Street this week, it seems that markets cannot make up their minds after last week’s euphoric rally and Euro-zone compromise. It appeared that markets were on a meteoric rise that could have possibly carried us into Christmas, however Prime Minister Papandreou’s referendum call for Greece and MF Global’s bankruptcy soured the mood.
The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) dropped half a percent today; the fall likely represents the current troubles of MF Global Holdings (NYSEArca:MF), which filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. MF Global has ...
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August 29th, 2011 10:52 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...
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May 25th, 2011 4:59 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga
Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.
Visit Benzinga >
...
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March 12th, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
VLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.
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SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.
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March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm
Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX
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March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm
This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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One trade virtual portfolio
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March 6th, 2011 8:22 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy
Comments welcome... share your thoughts.
Download Newsletter 3/6/11
Stock World Weekly archives here >
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March 1st, 2011 9:42 am
February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
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