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by TrendTrader - December 6th, 2011 4:10 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
testing 123
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by mpatton - August 13th, 2011 2:45 pm
Testing 123…
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Our $25K-$100K virtual Portfolio – Week 6 – $31,813
by Phil - April 22nd, 2011 8:23 am
Wow, what a ride!
We had a super-busy day on Friday and it’s a great example of exactly why we play this hyper-aggressive virtual portfolio the way we do – with balanced positions on both sides, taking advantages of moves in either direction – not just to cash out winners, but to press our losing bets on the theory that our ranges will continue to hold. They will, of course, break one day – and that’s why we keep such a close eye on our watch levels but, as long as they remain range-bound – it’s just a little gold mine that we can tap over and over and over again.
We caught the downturn on the dime on Wednesday and yesterday it was crazy from the first minute – so much so that I had to send a 7:15 am Alert to Members regarding the earthquake in Japan, an update on the "Day of Rage" (as we expected, a big nothing) and how the Wall Street Journal was once again ripping off my headlines.
On the whole, we got the spike low and then the ridiculous run-up we had expected for Friday – the Japanese quake was just the "reason" de jure for the bots. Although I sincerely hope I do not have to remind our Members of Rule #1 (as we only have two rules) – I did send out another Alert at 9:34 saying: "$25KP Moves. I do not have time to check prices – take money and run on FAZ short calls, USO long puts and EDZ of course. More to follow." - as there was not a second to waste if we were going to sell into this particular excitement.
At 9:40 I was already flipping bullish and we added the DIA March $120 calls at $1.03 in the $25KP and then, by 9:59, we had a slew of adjustments to make, which I will detail below. I did not have time to mention it in the morning, so I will mention it now – one of the only times it is acceptable to put in market orders is when you are selling into the excitement. If you have 3 positions to dump out of before the market turns and 7 other positions to look over to decide what to do with them – you’d better execute those sells but that…
testing new preface
by IncomeTrader - March 14th, 2011 9:43 pm
Reminder: Kojo is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here to learn more about Income Trader
testing new preface 123
Food Prices Rise 11% in China, Overall Prices Rises 4.9%; Central Planning Idiocy; China’s Impossible Dream
by ilene - March 11th, 2011 7:37 pm
Courtesy of Mish
Food prices continue to soar in China and the overall prices are up 4.9% officially. Nonetheless, the Chinese central bank has ruled out currency appreciation and has also ruled up curtailment of credit.
The New York Times has additional details in China’s February Inflation Held at 4.9 Percent
China’s February inflation stayed elevated on a double-digit rise in food prices, adding to pressure for communist leaders to cool surging living costs they worry could fuel unrest.
February consumer prices rose 4.9 percent while food price inflation accelerated to 11 percent from January’s 10.3 percent increase. That exceeded Beijing’s 4 percent target for the year and defied forecasts by analysts who expected the rate to ease.
Inflation, especially in food prices, is dangerous for China’s leaders because it erodes economic gains that underpin the Communist Party’s claim to power. Poor Chinese families spend up to half their incomes on food.
Speaking at a news conference held in connection with the annual meeting of China’s legislature, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said inflation is stable, though at a "relatively high level."
Zhou ruled out major changes in credit or exchange rate policy. Analysts say Beijing has fueled inflation by keeping interest rates too low to ward off the global crisis and could cut import costs by letting its tightly controlled currency rise faster against the dollar.
"The main instrument for managing inflation is not the exchange rate regime," Zhou told reporters. He added later: "When we make adjustments to interest rates we cannot think about the consumer price index only. We have other objectives, such as the impact on liquidity in the market."
Beijing has tried to mollify the public by paying food subsidies to poor families and ordering local leaders to see vegetable markets have adequate supplies.
China’s Impossible Dream
- China does not want to hike rates
- China does not want to curtail bank lending
- China does not want the Yuan to rise
- China does not want inflation to exceed 4%
- China does want 7-10% growth
China is going to overheat to the point of implosion unless it does something it does not want to do. Sustained 10% growth, or even 7% growth is no longer possible.
China refuses to come to grips with that reality. Instead, Chinese banks keep making real estate loans for properties no one can afford and no one even…
Cornfields vs. Oilfields (Infographic)
by ilene - March 11th, 2011 6:20 pm
Heres’s an interesting infographic by Online Schools, via Timothy B. Hurst and h/t Jr. Deputy Accountant.
Via: Online Schools
Chart Porn: Here’s the Real Reason Gas is So Expensive
by ilene - March 11th, 2011 6:13 pm
Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant
…besides the fact that oil is denominated in dollars and our dollars are being diluted on a daily basis by the money-printing maniacs at the Federal Reserve.
I present to you, my second favorite food-based commodity (after bacon pork bellies, of course), corn:
Corn was trading at $3.50 over the summer and is now just under $7. The U.S. government predicts corn reserves this year will be at their lowest level in 15 years due to high demand from China and, presumably, our gas tanks (who came up with that idea?! The cornfield mafia, of course.).
Just wait until these price spikes really hit the grocery store, we haven’t even had time to digest this yet. Must be that global savings glut at work or something, couldn’t possibly have anything to do with all the dollars we pulled out of our as*es.
Worse, look for an ethanol farmer bailout, coming soon to a cornfield near you.
How Punk Rock and Pop Music Relate to Social Mood and the Markets
by ilene - March 11th, 2011 5:36 pm
Elliott Wave Internation explains How Punk Rock and Pop Music Relate to Social Mood and the Markets.
We can now add the recent uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East to the category of life imitating art — specifically, music lyrics. Those who lived through the 1980s might be forgiven for hearing an unbidden snatch of music run through their heads as they watched first Hosni Mubarak and now Moammar Gadhafi try to hold onto power — "Should I Stay or Should I Go" by The Clash. In Libya, where Gadhafi has used air strikes and ground forces against the rebels, The Clash’s other huge hit from 1981, "Rock the Casbah," describes the current situation so well it’s almost eerie:
The king called up his jet fighters
He said you better earn your pay
Drop your bombs between the minarets
Down the Casbah way
Punk rock played by bands like The Clash, X, The Ramones, and the Sex Pistols had that in-your-face, defy-authority attitude that crashed onto the scene in Great Britain and the United States in the ’70s and ’80s. It’s interesting that the lyrics can still ring true 30 years later, but even more trenchant is how the prevailing mood is reflected by the music of the times, as seen in this chart that Robert Prechter included in a talk he gave last year.
Popular culture reflects social mood, and the stock market reflects that same social mood. That’s why we get loud, angry music when people are unhappy with their situation; they want to sell stocks. We get light, poppy, bubblegum music when they feel happy and content; they want to buy stocks. In a USA Today article about music and social moods in November 2009, reporter Matt Frantz made clear the connection that Elliott Wave International has been writing about for years:
The idea linking culture to stock prices is surprisingly simple: The population essentially goes through mass mood swings that determine not only the types of music we listen to and movies we watch, but also if we want to buy or sell stocks. These emotional booms and busts are followed by corresponding swings on Wall Street.
"The same social elements driving the stock market are driving the gyrations on the dance floor," says Matt Lampert, research fellow at the Socionomics Institute, a think tank associated with well-known market researcher Robert
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Crashiversary Week – Friday Shakedown – Earthquake Edition
by Phil - March 11th, 2011 7:24 am
What’s shaking?
That was a special message for our friends in Japan, who are very shaken today with an 8.9 quake which is, of course, devastating. Here’s a picture and notice how stuff is just pulverized (before being washed away by the 30-foot Tsunami that followed (on the right of the picture):
![[1jquake0311]](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-MZ267_1jquak_F_20110311051517.jpg)
Somehow they are saying only 29 dead but I can’t see that. Tens of thousands of people were evacuated and 4.1M people lost power so far. Poor New Zealand was recently hit and now they have Tsunami warnings too (as does Hawaii).
![[JQUAKE]](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/AI-BJ019_JQUAKE_NS_20110311020306.jpg)
At 3:24 p.m., a large aftershock struck, which could be felt standing on the ground outside of buildings in central Tokyo. People gasped while looking up at skyscrapers swaying gently and construction cranes shaking violently atop half-completed buildings. Glass panels on the ground floor of many newer buildings shimmied but few appeared to break.
Let’s hear it for the World’s strongest building code! I very much doubt US buildings would fare so well.
This will make a Japanese rate hike out of the question, probably for the rest of this year and so will be a dollar booster and EDZ will, of course, be flying. This is not the way we like to win on our bets, unfortunately but it is a very good object lesson about why it is very foolish not to always have some kind of disaster protection in your virtual portfolio – because you never do know when a disaster is going to strike.
Over time, it’s complacency that kills you…
Meanwhile, my kids are home today because their school is flooded – we are screwing up this planet in all kinds of crazy ways aren’t we? I’m sure if we ignore all this stuff or call for "further research" (funded of course by the very same businesses that cause the pollution) for another few decades it will all be fine.
Oil is way down at $99.90 – so much for the "Day of Rage," which is kind of a fizzle in Saudi Arabia - If there is such a thing as a "long-squeeze" then you may be seeing it today as speculators need
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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