New 52 Week Highs – Notice a Pattern?
by - December 29th, 2011 12:05 pm
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
As I scan my traditional watch lists most of the stocks in them are doing “meh” – they take 3 steps forward and 2 steps back. Or vice versa. They are really doing very little other than churning. Most of the leadership of the past 2-3 years has died – broken charts everywhere. See Mr. Amazon.com (AMZN) for but one example.
Lately, it has been a market whose leadership is in safety and yield. Not typically what you associate with a bull move. Many of these stocks are very overbought (in some cases extremely so) but each day the buyers come in and buy more…. one wonders if Mr. Bernanke with his multi year (and perhaps decade long) low interest rate policy has begun fomenting the next bubble: yield. No longer able to get yield in traditional havens, investors are pushed into equities that provide it. Seemingly, en masse.When stock price appreciation expands in excess of earnings or cash flow – that means multiples are expanding. Multiples are a judgement call – but generally fall within very long term historical ranges. We are now seeing excess in the ranges but like good lemmings the crowd is being herded…
Ironically these are considered ‘safe’ stocks – but we all have seen this game before and know how the crowded trade ends. But we never know when.
I think as you scan the 52 week high list a very obvious pattern should be apparent.
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mkt Cap |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive Inc. | Auto Dealerships | 1,172 |
| HPY | Heartland Payment Systems, Inc. | Business Services | 949 |
| RAI | Reynolds American Inc. | Cigarettes | 24,307 |
| CHD | Church & Dwight Co. Inc. | Cleaning Products | 6,569 |
| HSY | Hershey Co. | Confectioners | 13,874 |
| RYN | Rayonier Inc. | Conglomerates | 5,382 |
| FRED | Fred’s, Inc. | Discount, Variety Stores | 541 |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital Corporation | Diversified Investments | 552 |
| ED | Consolidated Edison Inc. | Diversified Utilities | 18,215 |
| WEC | Wisconsin Energy Corp. | Diversified Utilities | 8,099 |
…
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DiggMore on the Going Nowhere Trade
by - December 29th, 2011 10:28 am
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
S&P 500 closing price on 12/31/10: 1257.64.
Current print: 1257.82.
It’s been a great year for broker commissions – not such a great year for anyone else.
/spinning wheels
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
Ten Year Italian Bonds Sold at 6.98% – Strangely, Market Yawns
by - December 29th, 2011 8:08 am
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Riddle me this. Yesterday, Italy had a ‘successful’ short term bond auctions but the market took a gash to the chest as the euro broke down to a yearly low – which of course meant the dollar rallied, which of course meant every risk asset on Earth had to be sold by the computers. Of course those sub 3 year bond auctions were affected by the LTRO situation. Today, we saw an Italian 10 year bond auction, which was relatively putrid at a nearly 7% yield, the euro falls again and…. no one cares. Futures are up. Boggling. Just boggling.
On a side note – it looks like the ECB (which of course is not allowed to bid directly in an auction from a government) stepped in directly after the auction to buy buy buy.
Based on the difference in action in sub 3 year versus over 3 years we clearly see that yes the LTRO has had an impact….this was something I was very curious to see. One wonders when the ECB will begin offering nearly free money at 7 years (or heck 10 years) rather than 3 years to “fix” the eurozone.
Via Reuters:
- Italy’s borrowing costs fell from recent record highs at a bond auction on Thursday but cautious investors still demanded a near 7 percent yield to buy 10-year debt, a level seen unsustainable over time for the euro zone’s third-largest economy. Traders said the European Central Bank stepped in after the auction to buy Italian bonds on the open market as investors worry about the country’s ability to sell enough long-term debt ahead of large redemptions early next year.
- Italy raised 7 billion euros ($9 billion) of debt in thin holiday markets, just above the mid-point of its target range. It sold the top planned amount of its 10-year benchmark bond but the yield was 6.98 percent, not far from a euro lifetime record of 7.56 percent a month ago.
- “Today’s decline in the auction yield by ‘just’ about 60 basis points versus end-November in such a high-yield territory underscores that the genuine pressure on Italy is still tremendous, despite bold ECB actions that have given (short-term debt) a big boost,” said David Schnautz, a rate strategist at Commerzbank in London.
Disclosure Notice
Any securities…
December 28th, 2011 Market Analysis with Gold Update
by Chart School - December 28th, 2011 5:24 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
The US Dollar was up and the market was down on minimal volume. And yup, that’s about the extent of today’s action. The biggest gainer on my watch list of 125 securities was Bankrate (RATE) with a paltry +0.8% return. Updated market charts below. See you tomorrow!
5000 Points to Nowhere
by - December 28th, 2011 3:17 pm
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Today’s losses have pushed the S&P 500 back to ‘flattish’ for the year – the DJIA is slightly up and the NASDAQ slightly down. Barring any massive move in the next 2 days the “Presidential effect” (3rd year of the presidency showing big gains) will have gone with the wind. This chart Ritholtz posted via Ron Griess of theChartStore shows how we’ve moved over 5000 points this year (and over 3000 since July 1) to get nowhere. The 2nd half of the year has been among the most volatile, yet we’ve more or less gone nowhere. A very difficult market – with a nod to Def Leppard “Chop Chop Til you Drop”
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
December 27th, 2011 Market Analysis with look at Oil, BWLD, XLP
by Chart School - December 27th, 2011 5:28 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
A fairly flat day for the market but many are citing the head & shoulders breakout on the Dow Jones as a bullish indicator for the market moving forward. Let’s start there.
And one chart from StockCharts.com, “Of the nine sector SPDRs, only two hit new 52-week highs last week: the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and the Utilities SPDR (XLU). These two defensive sectors are clearly leading the market right now. The chart below shows XLP breaking its May highs and the Price Relative moving higher since February.”
Market Analysis with V, ISRG & Happy Holidays!
by Chart School - December 22nd, 2011 6:33 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
As usual there will be no Friday market recap so I wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Posting will resume sometime next week, most likely on Tuesday the 27th.
Some holiday market cheer from online broker TradeKing.
Market analysis below including Visa (V) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). See you next week!
December 20th, 2011 Stock Market Analysis and ADP’s Breakout
by Chart School - December 20th, 2011 6:15 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Tonight’s best to the point market summary comes from the WSJ,
U.S. stocks rallied as domestic home building jumped to the highest level in nearly two years and another successful Spanish debt auction buoyed investor sentiment.
The roller coaster continues… now for some updated charts.
A beautiful breakout for Automatic Data Processing (ADP) through $53. This stock looks poised to move higher from here.
December 19th, 2011 Stock Market Analysis
by Chart School - December 19th, 2011 7:08 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Today’s key headlines: North Korea’s Kim Jong II dies of heart attack, Bank of America falls under $5 for the first time in three years, ATT gives up on its $39 Billion bid to acquire T-Mobile.
And lastly I am including a chart of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) as it was the top performer in my watch list. An impressive setup here despite the shaky market.
December 15th, 2011 Stock Market Recap
by Chart School - December 15th, 2011 6:19 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
A very “blah” day for the markets. Nothing crazy exciting beyond Zynga (ZNGA) selling 100 million shares at $10 and starting its trading tomorrow alongside Research in Motion (RIMM) posting sour earnings (the stock is down over 7% after hours).
Thus tonight I am jumping straight to the charts. There will be no recap tomorrow as usual so I will see you back here after the weekend break. Have a good one!
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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