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Sabrient Risers – 3/7/2011


Top 5 Risers

Stock Rating Analysis
MIC STRONGBUY An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make MIC a company to watch.
ETFC STRONGBUY The long term projected growth rate for E*TRADE is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly.
JCP STRONGBUY J.C. Penney has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.
CHK STRONGBUY The long term projected growth rate for Chesapeake Energy is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly.
IPGP STRONGBUY Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from IPG Photonics Corp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.



Sabrient Divers – 03/05/2011


Top 5 Divers

Stock Rating Analysis
ATPG SELL Recent earnings changes for ATP Oil & Gas are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
AEE SELL Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
AMT STRONGSELL A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.
AGN SELL Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Allergan lower and lower in our stack.
CLX STRONGSELL Recent earnings changes for Clorox are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.



Sabrient Risers – 3/4/2011


Top 5 Risers

Stock Rating Analysis
MIC STRONGBUY An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make MIC a company to watch.
ETFC STRONGBUY The long term projected growth rate for E*TRADE is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly.
CTCM BUY An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make CTC Media a company to watch.
CHK STRONGBUY The long term projected growth rate for Chesapeake Energy is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly.
IPGP STRONGBUY Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from IPG Photonics Corp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.



Sector Detector: Market Shifts into Neutral

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Senior Managing Director

This month marks the first time since July 1 that the first trading day of the month wasn’t an up day. That’s 8 months in a row of money pouring in on the first trading day. Furthermore, recall that July 1 marked a low for the SPY at 101.13 that ended a 2-month correction to the 13-month rally off the March 2009 V-bottom, and launched a new 8-month rally. Is the fun over now? Or is this just a speed bump – a needed shift into neutral for the market to test bullish support and reload for the next run?

Oil remains front and center. It finished at a two-year closing high today at $102.23, mostly due to deterioration in the situation in Libya and the threat of unrest continuing to spread throughout oil-producing regions of the world. High oil prices are making a noticeable impact on some sectors (especially Airlines), but a widespread belief (hope?) that things ultimately will smooth out seems to be keeping the markets from selling off hard.

Or maybe it’s Charlie Sheen’s maniacal rants that dominate the news and distract everyone from the cold hard global realities.

Or maybe it’s the latest economic reports. Tuesday’s Beige Book release showed that economic activity continues to improve across all 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Labor markets strengthened, inflation seems to be developing, manufacturing production improved, and commercial real estate is showing signs of improvement, although residential real estate activity remains weak. And then today, a stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change was reported.

Or maybe it’s the Federal Reserve’s aggressive Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) buying of Treasuries to free up cash for investment in stocks.

Looking at the SPY chart, it seems to have shifted from pedal-to-the-metal into neutral. In fact, the pattern since mid-February is looking very much like it did from early to late November, when price fell from the upper Bollinger Band, down through the 20-day moving average to the 40-day, and then tried to recover before making another test of support at the 40-day and lower Bollinger Band. Like it did in November, RSI is bouncing along the neutral line, and MACD had a bearish crossover and is now looking for support. If things play out as they did before, SPY will find support and re-launch on its bullish trajectory. But as they say, historical performance is no…
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Sabrient Divers – 03/03/2011


Top 5 Divers

Stock Rating Analysis
AEE SELL Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
AMT STRONGSELL A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.
DPM STRONGSELL Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for DPM, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well.
CLX STRONGSELL Recent earnings changes for Clorox are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
AGN SELL Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Allergan lower and lower in our stack.



Sabrient Divers – 03/02/2011


Top 5 Divers

Stock Rating Analysis
AEE SELL Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
AMT STRONGSELL A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.
DF SELL With projected value going down even more quickly than their recent historical earnings, Dean Foods is not looking good.
DPM STRONGSELL Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for DPM, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well.
AGN SELL Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Allergan lower and lower in our stack.



Sabrient Divers – 03/01/2011


Top 5 Divers

Stock Rating Analysis
AEE SELL Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
DPM STRONGSELL Projected long-term growth for DPM is going down, expected value is decreasing, and tough times are ahead.
AMT STRONGSELL A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.
DF SELL Recent earnings changes for Dean Foods are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
XRAY SELL Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for DENTSPLY, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well.



Sabrient Risers – 3/1/2011


Top 5 Risers

Stock Rating Analysis
SFI BUY Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from iStar, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
SD STRONGBUY The projected value for SandRidge Energy Inc is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
SINA BUY An increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Sina a good prospect for high returns.
CENX BUY Projected value continues to rise for Century Aluminum while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
TRW STRONGBUY TRW has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.



What the Market Wants: Economy Struggles To Recover As Middle East Rages

Courtesy of David Brown, Chief Market Strategist

Things are looking up this week — if you limit your gaze to recent economic reports. Personal income was up significantly more than the market expected (+1.0% vs. 0.3%); the Chicago PMI came in better than expected, at 71.2 v s. 68.0; and although negative, pending home sales were not as negative as the market thought they would be.  There was one number today that was worse than expected, and that was personal spending, up just +0.2% when +0.4% was generally expected.

Last week, in comparison, sharply rising food and oil prices raised inflation alerts for both consumers and economic growth. Granted, we had a very positive consumer sentiment indicator on Friday and a positive consumer confidence number earlier in the week, but remember that both reports were taken well before the most recent breakout of turbulence in oil-rich Libya and the subsequent spike in the price of oil to over $100 a barrel.

You need only to look at last week’s sector performance to get a feel for what’s going on. The only sector in positive territory was Energy, while the worst-performing sectors were those which are highly dependent on oil, such as Transportation and Basic Industries.  The sectors least hurt by last week’s turmoil – Public Utilities, Health Care and Consumer Non-Durables – represent a flight to safety, as does the fact that gold and silver prices rose sharply. 

Economic Growth Plodding Along. The fourth quarter GDP came in at 2.8% on Friday, versus 3.2% for the third quarter.  This indicates the economy is continuing to recover, but more slowly than expected, and that is particularly disappointing in light of the massive influx of QE2 money.  There are also hints that the Fed’s levels of accommodation are being stretched, and while I think it is unlikely that they will hike interest rates any time soon, their capacity for continued stimulation is definitely running thin, especially in light of the new GOP majority, budget-cutting Senate and a number of shortages and cutbacks by state and municipal governments.

All told, it is hard to believe that economic growth will do much better than slowly plod along, and that isn’t very good news for employment or for the housing market.

To be sure, money continues to flow out of the bond market ($1.8 billion in January, after the $10 billion in December), and…
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ETF Periscope: Oil Barrels Back Towards the Century Mark

Courtesy of Daniel Sckolnik, ETF Periscope

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.– Albert Einstein

The markets have snapped out of their recent spell of complacency with the sharp pop of a rubber band that has been stretched and released.

The coming week will likely reveal whether the word “robust” can be applied to the current Bull market, or if cracks in the uptrend will lead to a correction that seems on the overdue side of things.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) spending a good portion of the week tumbling down towards the 12,000 level, it is clear that, at the very least, the current uptrend has lost some wind from its sails, and at the very worst, the markets are about to become more reactive to “real world” events than they have in the last several months.

Specifically, those events are centered on the geo-political upheaval that has occurred in the Middle East over the last month, with a level of uncertainty that has now arisen and has yet to be accurately reflected in either the markets or the mainstream media.

While the price of crude oil has certainly started to serve as a strong barometer for the region’s turbulent events, closing in on the $100 per barrel mark, that price may seem on the low side when and if it becomes clear who actually is in charge of the vast oil supplies within Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia.  

Though the leading producer of the region, Saudi Arabia, has attempted to calm the markets this past week by promising to increase production to cover any shortfalls that the region may experience, the fact is they really don’t have the ability to sustain any serious disruption on a major basis.

The real problem, however, may be the sharks in the water, otherwise known as the “speculators.” Perception is, of course, almost everything in the markets and if prices begin to get jacked up by those playing the crude oil futures markets, as occurred during the run-up to $150 during ’08, then prices can spiral out of control, with lots of collateral damage to the rest of the financial markets.

The next few weeks will reveal a lot, as the direction of the turmoil in the Middle East unfolds.

So, with the markets manifesting a…
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Phil's Favorites

Mind Blowing Economic Charts – First Time Claims, The Stock Market, and The Fed

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Improvement in first time unemployment claims is slowing. Actual, not seasonally manipulated data, including an adjustment for the usual weekly upward revision, shows that the year to year rate of change is on the cusp of a possible upside breakout, which would be good news for stock market bears if it happens.

Initial Unemployment Claims Chart- Click to enlarge

Here’s why it’s mind blowing. I’ve plotted it below on an inverse scale with the S&P 500 overlaid.

Unemployemt Claims and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

That speaks for itself. As the i...



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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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ETF Selector

US Markets Drop On Italy Fear (EWI, DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...

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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down for the Day and the Week

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 broke its string of four-consecutive weekly gains with loss of 0.63% for the day and 2.48% for the week.

The index is back in the red year-to-date, down 0.35% and 8.09% below the interim high of April 29.

From an intermediate perspective, the index is 85.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 19.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 


Click for a larger image ...

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Zero Hedge

Dallas Fed Latest Economic Contraction Confirmation; Survey Respondents' Gloom Soars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...



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Insider Scoop

Diana Containerships Files To Offer Stock Up To $172.5M -Bloomberg (DCIX)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.

Visit Benzinga >

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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OpTrader

Swing trading virtual portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.  

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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