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Put Up Better Numbers In 2011

As predicted we are moving sideways to slightly bullish and I feel that we will continue have more of the same through the end of the year. Look for reduced participation as measured by volume as traders take some time off for the holiday season. It is time to assess the trading year and make plans for next year. If you don’t have a trading plan, I would encourage you to do that. After all, this is a business and we should treat it as such.




Santa Arrived A Bit Early

Santa arrived early leaving a couple of presents under the tree in the form of two surprisingly bullishness trading days at the end of this week. I feel we are overbought and ripe for a pullback but we continue to climb the ‘Wall of Worry’. I am cautiously bullish looking for a retracement at anytime. Take note of the Candles as we approach well defined areas of resistance and if they are indecisive Dojis and Spinning Tops on reduced volume, that will be your indication to lighten the load and take profits. It is still very likely that we will tend to be in a range until the end of the year




We Will Trade In A Range Through The End Of The Year

As expected, we had a lot of movement this week due to a full economic calendar. My thesis from last week is still intact. I feel we will be in a trading range for the rest of the year. As we move into the holidays, I suspect that volume will lessen as traders spend time with their family. Tax uncertainty still lingers and we may have positions closing in 2010 to capture tax certainty rather than speculating on what the rates may be going forward.




We Are Moving Sideways Through The End Of The Year

We are channeling as I had indicated that we would do. I feel that we are in for sideways trading for much of the remainder of 2010. An escalation of the European debt crisis and a worsening of the Korean situation could change that so it may be prudent to remain hedged on your long positions. Next week presents a bevy of economic news which could move the markets with Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, Auto and Truck Sales, the Beige Book as well as Nonfarm Payrolls




The 20 Simple Moving Average Is A Magnet

After testing the April highs, we pulled back as I indicated that we would in my market analysis from last week.  All of the indexes have retraced and broken the 20 Simple Moving Average which has been strong support since early September.  We are now testing the underside of that average and I feel that we will begin to channel."
 

 




Watch For A Bounce Off The April Highs

Fundamental events, as indicated last week in my analysis, had the potential to drive the market bullishly to test the April highs and that is exactly what happened. We are slightly above resistance and I feel the next move is to retrace to test old resistance which has now become new support. If we bounce we could be on for a more sustained bullish run. If support doesn’t hold, we will move back into a channel and trade there for awhile. It is likely that the markets will languish a bit as the move on Thursday resulting from the QE2 announcement moved the indexes outside of the upper Bollinger Band. When that happens almost always price action slows or retraces. I feel that it is now more likely that we will get a bounce and move higher after a short term pullback to retest the aforementioned support.




It’s Time To Take Some Off The Table!

Very little movement this week. We are just shy of the April highs and the market appears to be looking for direction. Next week could provide several catalyst events to move the markets. The elections, the Fed Meeting and QE2 as well as the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. Mix all that up with the recent terror concerns and you could have a recipe for stock market movement. My sense is that we are going down after a nice run up.




Climbing A Wall of Worry

We are beginning to flatten into a flag on the indexes. I feel there is enough strength in the market to retest the April highs but that area should pose formidable resistance. I would have expected more movement in the market due to earnings season. I feel the lack of conviction in the investment community is testament to an impending pullback. Next week is a heavy reporting week so we shall see if there are any market movers. Once the April highs are reached, look for the market to reverse




Earnings Will Be Key To Sustained Bullishness

We had a mixed market today with Google and Apple leading the Nasdaq higher. The SPX was essentially flat and the DOW retraced by 32. The market is at some resistance and the internals were broadly down on the advance/decline. The Dollar is higher today and Bonds appear to be less attractive as the TBT has recently spiked higher in anticipation of possible inflationary issues going forward. Look for the markets to rest or retrace for the short term however, earnings surprises could change that outlook.




Weekly Stock Market Video Review: Melting Up

The market seems like it wants to come down, but continues to inch higher. I am looking for a sharp move down to retest some support before moving higher. October may provide us that move before ending the year on some strength




 

Phil's Favorites

Mind Blowing Economic Charts – First Time Claims, The Stock Market, and The Fed

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Improvement in first time unemployment claims is slowing. Actual, not seasonally manipulated data, including an adjustment for the usual weekly upward revision, shows that the year to year rate of change is on the cusp of a possible upside breakout, which would be good news for stock market bears if it happens.

Initial Unemployment Claims Chart- Click to enlarge

Here’s why it’s mind blowing. I’ve plotted it below on an inverse scale with the S&P 500 overlaid.

Unemployemt Claims and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

That speaks for itself. As the i...



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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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ETF Selector

US Markets Drop On Italy Fear (EWI, DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...

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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down for the Day and the Week

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 broke its string of four-consecutive weekly gains with loss of 0.63% for the day and 2.48% for the week.

The index is back in the red year-to-date, down 0.35% and 8.09% below the interim high of April 29.

From an intermediate perspective, the index is 85.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 19.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 


Click for a larger image ...

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Zero Hedge

Dallas Fed Latest Economic Contraction Confirmation; Survey Respondents' Gloom Soars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...



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Insider Scoop

Diana Containerships Files To Offer Stock Up To $172.5M -Bloomberg (DCIX)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.

Visit Benzinga >

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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OpTrader

Swing trading virtual portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.  

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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