Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Author Archive for markettamer

Long In The Tooth Rally

Asia down overnight, futures down, euro rate hike…. rather than rehash it all, let’s get to the bottom of line of picks and performance!

 





Was Friday’s Price Action a Fool’s Bounce?

The indexes are currently forming a "Bear Flag" bearish continuation pattern and although Friday’s price action was very bullish, I don’t feel that we are done moving down. Watch for the indexes to test support 5-6% below the recent high.





Bullish But Cautious

We continue to move higher and I continue to be bullish. We are currently at a key resistance level in the Compq and we are testing the closing high from October 2007 at 2834. We are also about 29 points away from the trading high at 2862 in that index. The levels that we need to take note of on the DOW, the SPX and the Compq are the 20 simple moving average and the prominent trend line that has been in place since September. If those key areas are breached, that could be significant and the beginning of a possible short term pullback. Stay nimble and it wouldn’t be a bad thing to consider a hedge





Still Bullish… (yawn!)

We continue a very bullish move even in the face of seemingly strong geo-political headwinds with the events in Egypt.  I feel that we will continue to push higher and 2011 will be a very bullish year.  We are overdue for a correction but it shouldn’t be a massive sell off but rather more of a "cleansing" and then a resumption higher





Pot Holes In The Road Ahead

The market continues higher confirming what I suspect will be a very bullish 2011, although, we are overdue for a pullback. Watch for a breach of the 20 simple moving average and the recent trend line that has been in place since September. The retracement when it occurs should not be massive but only a shake out of small magnitude and then a resumption of the bullish move





Will Bearish Sentiment Continue Next Week?

We experienced a bearish week as predicted in my analysis from last week.  Today’s action was especially bearish with  Egypt’s civil unrest.  We were overdue for a pullback and it is healthy for the market to do so.  I don’t believe the pullback will be massive but only a "cleansing" and then resumption of the longer term bullish move





The Steady Climb Higher Should Continue

The market continues to push steadily higher on positive sentiment. We are now in earnings season and it will be interesting to note whether we get confirmation on the bullish outlook from the collective forward guidance. January is looking quite strong and is consistent with historic seasonal tendancies for the 3rd year of a Presidential term. From a technical perspective, until the indexes break the recent trend line and the 20 simple moving average and does so on volume, I see no reason to change my bullish stance. It is always a good thing to be hedged with a contingency exit plan in place.





We Will Re-test Support and Bounce

We have begun to roll over a little bit as I anticipated would happen as pointed out in last week’s analysis. I look for trend line support and then support from the 20SMA on all three indexes. I feel that the retracement will be small and we will bounce and continue higher





Believe (Just Not That Much) – Dunning-Kruger Revealed

94% of college professors rank their work as above average.  Hmm…simple statistics tells us only half will be above average.  Yet this holds true for the general public too; most people think they are above average drivers too.  And on the other end of the scale, Darwin once wrote that:

“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than knowledge

So, how does this all relate to making money in the stock market.  And what does it have to do with the Dunning-Kruger effect?

An example of the Dunning-Kruger effect would be the case of an unskilled person, who makes poor decisions and reaches incorrect conclusions, failing to realize their mistakes.  Essentially, their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to realize their mistakes.  This is sometimes described as illusory superiority, involving rating one’s own ability as above average as we saw in the case of the professors.  The flipside of this phenomenon is illusory inferiority in which competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equal understanding and so underrate their abilities.

In the stock market, an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect comes into play when people, who are truly skilled at what they do, and have made money consistently in the market, question their own ability.  They believe that they are just not as good as their results demonstrate.  And it also comes into play when people, who are not as proficient, believe that they are in fact better than they truly are.

For a human, it is especially challenging to come to terms with the Dunning-Kruger effect, especially if performance has not been that good.  Why?  Because it is a direct strike at the ego.  And it is a quick spiral downwards from poor results to the Ostrich Effect, which you can learn more about by clicking here.

As a person who underperforms yet overbelieves, the solution is to learn more, practice and improve as a trader.  On the other hand, if you are in the enviable position of being an overachiever but not giving yourself permission to accept that, your job is to Believe in yourself, just not that much…or the pendulum can quickly overswing toward excess confidence!

 





Time To Shine

I had predicted a lazy bullish move into the final weeks and days of 2010 and that is what we got. We are poised to pull back and test the 20 SMA and prior resistance which has become new support. I feel that we will test and bounce and we will end the month of January in bullish fashion. There are a lot of reasons to feel bullish for 2011. We are in the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle which is a seasonal tendancy that has performed at a high level. There is recent evidence of outflows from the bond market and back into the stock market and I feel that trend will continue so get ready to make some money on the top side of the market. Dust off your watchlist and get your Long Picks ready for action.”





 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

...

more from David

Market Montage

Bridgewater’s Views Still Gloomy on 2012

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Ray Dalio has created a machine at hedge fund Bridgewater – not only have assets surpassed $120B, the fund continues to churn out some fantastic results for investors.  Through end of August last year, the fund was up 25% YTD (and that was after an awful August for markets, and before the stampede upward of October); this after a 44% gain in 2010.  Longer term, ...



more from Mark

Chart School

December 28th, 2011 Market Analysis with Gold Update

Courtesy of Blain.

The US Dollar was up and the market was down on minimal volume. And yup, that's about the extent of today's action. The biggest gainer on my watch list of 125 securities was Bankrate (RATE) with a paltry +0.8% return. Updated market charts below. See you tomorrow!

...

more from Chart School

ETF Selector

US Markets Drop On Italy Fear (EWI, DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...

more from John

Phil's Favorites

Markets Drop On Economic Reports, G-20 Meeting, Greece (GLD, USO, MF, SPY, QQQ)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Markets dropped slightly lower today on G-20 news, mixed economic reports, and Grecian woes.

After the confusing market action on Wall Street this week, it seems that markets cannot make up their minds after last week’s euphoric rally and Euro-zone compromise.  It appeared that markets were on a meteoric rise that could have possibly carried us into Christmas, however Prime Minister Papandreou’s referendum call for Greece and MF Global’s bankruptcy soured the mood.

The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) dropped half a percent today; the fall likely represents the current troubles of MF Global Holdings (NYSEArca:MF), which filed for bankruptcy earlier this week.  MF Global has ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Dallas Fed Latest Economic Contraction Confirmation; Survey Respondents' Gloom Soars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

Diana Containerships Files To Offer Stock Up To $172.5M -Bloomberg (DCIX)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.

Visit Benzinga >

...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

more from Sabrient

Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



more from Caitlin

OpTrader

Swing trading virtual portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

...

more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.  

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

more from SWW

Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



more from Pharmboy



As Seen On:




About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Favorites Site >>