New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project.
New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project.
New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project
Here’s an easy link to the front page for the k1 project, which gets buried in the archives thanks to the way WordPress (the software engine underneath PSW) manages articles
Probably the most important thing to think about when trading (who’s playing the space and at what times?). very good knowledge to have. I’ve said this in past posts many times buy I HIGHLY suggest everyone read this book: Mind over Markets (by James F. Dalton).
Not a holy grail or system trading, just a methodical approach to understanding the players in the market and when they’re in it. Even if you don’t use the CBOE Market Profile, you’ll learn a lot about who’s in the market when with this book.
As a useful add-on to the book, member Alfred Toy adds:
When Napoleon was asked which generals to take to war Napoleon answered "Give me the Lucky ones." – optiondragon
For the past 4 years I have been perfecting the Earnings 3 ways method. One of my specialties is event catalyst volatility plays. – optiondragon
One of my best friends Dad didn’t believe that I made $200,000 strangling GOOG earnings back in 2005 2nd Q earnings. I run into these people everday. I just shrug my shoulders and move on when they don’t take my ($1000)bet that i did. What are u gonna do? – optiondragon
The LTP strategy is the core of Phil’s approach. Though the minute-to-minute action through comments might lead you to think otherwise, the central elements of the LTP strategy are fundamental to any understanding of Phil’s approach:
I have come to doubt the veracity of Phil’s professed performance returns, as well as the usefulness of his strategy. Caveat Emptor – k1
"The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare." – Juma Ikangaa
Welcome friends to a journey I began this past summer, to understand how a trader and blogger who kept coming up in my Quicken news source (by way of SeekingAlpha) was consistently producing the kinds of returns I had been taught to believe could only be snake oil.
"Hedging is, in part, an admission that you may not know everything – that you may in fact, be wrong about a few things and are willing to pay to insure against that possibility." – Phil
Improvement in first time unemployment claims is slowing. Actual, not seasonally manipulated data, including an adjustment for the usual weekly upward revision, shows that the year to year rate of change is on the cusp of a possible upside breakout, which would be good news for stock market bears if it happens.
Initial Unemployment Claims Chart- Click to enlarge
Here’s why it’s mind blowing. I’ve plotted it below on an inverse scale with the S&P 500 overlaid.
Unemployemt Claims and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge
Major US Markets including (NYSEARCA:DIA), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), and (NYSEARCA:IWM) dropped over 3% each on Italian bond fears and an increased worry that Europe will not be able to bail out its 4th largest economy. Furthermore, the iShares MCSI Italy Fund (NYSEARCA:EWI) wiped out over 9% today, further illustrating the dire situation in Italy and the European Union: ...
The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -...
Bloomberg reports that Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX) files to offer stock up to $172.5M. Diana Containerships says that Diana shipping will also buy $20M of stock.
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...
This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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