The Afternoon Snack: Light News and Volume the Big Story, Housing Makes Winner for Oxen Group
by David Ristau - December 20th, 2010 10:58 pm
market with extended excitement over the tax cut extensions, but the market quickly changed its tune and began to sell off and remained flat for most of the day, only dropping as low as fifty points down before recovering before the close and ending mixed. The midday rally, though, shows some definite bullishness in the market, and it should be viewed as something positive rather than negative.
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DiggThe Afternoon Snack: Big Day for Ben, GE/NBC/Universal Makes Big Blunder, and Why We Are Going Green
by David Ristau - December 6th, 2010 4:52 pm
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The Oxen Report: Looking Midterm at Pharma Approval Candidate
by David Ristau - December 3rd, 2010 11:15 am
Hey all. Hope everyone is doing well. As promised, I will be posting things on here from time to time…2 or 3 articles per week perhaps. I wanted to pass along today’s article. My new website again is www.theoxengroup.com. Feel free to comment, and I will respond.
TGIF! Its been a tough, long week. We are holding three positions moving into the final day of the week, and we are looking to close shop on them. BIG had disappointing earnings at a penny miss on EPS and downgraded outlook. It was a disappointing report for them, and one I will have to spend some more time with since I like it longterm. We will be looking to exit this one at the open for the final 1/4 of the position we have left. We continue to hold TSL with an average entry at 23.20. We are looking to exit at 23.60s or higher. Finally, we are most likely going to just get rid of KERX to start the morning as it is near our stop loss of 4.90.
As for today, I will be looking to add a new Midterm Trade to the fold on today’s pullback, and we are going to have a new Longterm Ratings Report up with Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).
Good luck out there today!
Midterm Trade of the Day: Human Genome Sciences Inc. (HGSI)
Analysis: We are taking a look at a new position in a pharmaceuticals company Human Genome Sciences (HGSI). This company has some 
definite upward movement in its sights for next week. The reason behind its movement is due to the company’s approval date of its drug Benlysta on Thursday from FDA. The drug is a treatment drug for the ailment Lupus. If approved, it will be the first drug centered at targeting lupus in fifty years with no rival drugs and a market potential in the billions. The drug is very neat and creates antibodies that help cells remain alive when struck by Lupus.
The key, though, is if it gets approved. Leading up to its approval, the drug has hailed a ton of support from the Lupus community and various foundations that support the battle against lupus. Further, the drug had outstanding results from its tests. The drug met all its endpoint requirements in trials, and it was…
The Oxen Report: Korean Conflict Sparks Look to Short Sale
by David Ristau - November 23rd, 2010 9:20 am
Well, it does not appear to be a great day in the markets. What looked like ending yesterday would be a bullish run today has turned into a nightmare after weapons have been fired between North Korea and South Korea. The two countries have put a dent in the markets this morning. Our holdings in FMCN and VRGY are hurt by it. FMCN, luckily, has opened not too far below our own entry. I sold my final 1/2 at 24.55 for 0.5% loss for an average exit at 24.98 for a small gain overall. VRGY has opened at just neutral for us as well.
We are looking to short a company I recommended to some yesterday as an Overnight Trade…
Short Sale of the Day: Brown Shoe Co. (BWS)
Analysis: We got hit with a crisis that could not be foreseen, and it is allowing us to pick up short sales to hedge our losses. Anything that you see with major green movement is a good short sale to start the day. One of these such companies is a stock that I mentioned as a possible Overnight Trade to my new .png)
Oxen Group followers. The stock is up over 10.5% in pre-market after beating EPS and revenue estimates.
The company reported nice earnings with a 15% rise in sales, The company, additionally, well exceeded estimates set for it for analysts for FY10 and FY11. The company looks set for a nice run for the rest of the year; however, today, it will most likely pull back from the open. A Korean war may be on the brink, and that is definitely very scary for investments today. Many holders will want to sell the stock off the bat to collect gains and others will sell because they think everyone else is going to sell. We can take advantage of this by collecting short sales on the stocks, selling calls, or buying puts.
I like BWS for some significant movement downwards, additionally, because the stock is heavily overbought and has popped outside of its bollinger bands at current levels in pre-market trading. The stock’s RSI will jump above 65, and its fast stochastics were already moving into an oversold range and should be topping out as well. Overall, this stock is technically overvalued as well.
It looks like its time to short Brown Shoe…get in…
The Oxen Report: Market Looking Ready to Breakout, Let’s Look Midterm
by David Ristau - November 19th, 2010 11:30 am
TGIF! What a great week for us. We unveiled the new 16 Days of Oxen and things are going well. Yesterday, we had a fantastic day exiting TSL and DBRN for 5% and 4.% profits, respectively. We also entered a new Midterm Trade in Focus Media (FMCN) that was available only to my new Oxen Group members. We also unveiled the Afternoon Snack that I will include after this post.
(It may be time for a silver rally to get in par with gold…)
On the negative side, we did not hold Marvell (MRVL) into earnings and took a four cents loss. The stock is trading up 7%+ in the market currently after earnings were better than expected. Further, we had to take 4% loss on Chico’s (CHS) for our Short Sale in them.
The market, though, looks ready to breakout. A great day yesterday and a rebound is in the works to move higher today…positive signs. For that reason, I feel comfortable looking at another Midterm Trade, moving into next week.
Midterm Trade of the Day: Verigy Ltd. (VRGY)
Analysis: We start off by saying that, the Verigy merger with LTX-Credence was probably not a great decision by the company. They do get access to some of LTXC’s high profile clients, but the company has a lot of baggage and has not performed well as of late. Yet, at the same time, Verigy has put itself in a place where it has shed nearly all of the investors who did not like the decision and gotten rid a lot of traders involved with it. From pre-merger news about the merge to today, the stock has dropped just 
under 20%.
So, why do we think this is at all a good decision? Verigy is slated to report outstanding earnings next week as the stock has just hit rock bottom. The company is expected to report an EPS of 0.28 vs. one year ago’s loss of 0.02 per share. The company is improving its EPS by 1500%. That type of gain should attract a lot of investors, especially at these levels. The company is even improving quarter-over-quarter by more than 20%.
Competition has performed well additionally. 8/10 of the most similar market cap semicondutor equipment companies have beat or met earnings. No one has been blowing earnings out, but better than expected earnings are…
The Oxen Report: Market Looking Bullish into Thursday on Ireland and Jobs
by David Ristau - November 18th, 2010 9:16 am
Hey all. Happy Thursday. It looks like it will be a good day for us but not quite great with Irish news and jobless claims. They dropped to 439,000 today. Trina Solar (TSL) is up over 3% in the early goings this morning, which means we can get out of that one pretty quickly for a solid 4-5% gain. I will be looking to exit within the first few minutes. Dress Barn (DBRN) should also do well from the the fact that the market is looking bullish this morning. Unfortunately, we are still holding a Short Sale on Chico’s (CHS) from yesterday at 10.90. The stock is poised to open in the 11.20s. I am going to hold onto it for a bit and see what happens. I may lose 4% instead of 3%, but this stock has moved way too high on too little.
Let’s get into another Buy Pick this morning…
Buy Pick of the Day: Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL)
Analysis: Marvell Tech (MRVL) is reporting earnings in afterhours tonight. The company should have a pretty strong day moving into earnings especially with the market looking to blast off today. When we have have had 6-7 red days in a row, the market has to correct at some point in some degree. All it takes is one catalyst, and today, we got it with jobless claims and Ireland! Ireland is a very small economy, but a loan to ease a crisis is all we needed to feel optimistic again.
Marvell looks very solid because the company has dropped so much lately and is undervalued at this point. The.png)
stock has dropped over ten percent in the last week and a half, without a green day in the past eight sessions. The negativity seems a bit unjustified. The company is expected to improve its earnings this quarter from one year ago with an EPS of 0.45 vs. the expected 0.38.
The company is in the semiconductor sector, which has had its struggles in the last month. Yet, it has dropped so far that it has an RSI below 50 at 47, it is nearing its lower bollinger band, and it is oversold. With the market moving upwards, the stock should definitely see buyer interest increase especially with earnings on the line. Anyone that wanted to sell has gotten out and anyone…
The Oxen Report: Retail Continues to Shine in Q3, Unlike Suntech Power
by David Ristau - November 17th, 2010 9:08 am
Good Wednesday to all. Well, it is not a great morning for us as Suntech Power (STP) disappointed, and I now am looking quite foolish for overinvesting into solar power. The company had disappointing earnings this morning, and it looks like we are going to need to sell right out of the gate to avoid further losses. Our only other position is in DressBarn (DBRN), which is neutral for us currently.
Yesterday, I announced that we were starting the 16 Days of Oxen. Those members that signed up for 16 Days of Oxen started to receive exclusive material. Yesterday, they received an Overnight Trade that is down a bit to start the day but looks strong. Today, they will receive a new Longterm Ratings Report and get first access to one of our new writers. If you want to receive this information let me know, and I will tell you about how you can receive it.
The market is definitely a tough read right now. There is not too much going on in the right direction this morning as CPI, housing starts, and building permit reports were all weaker than expected. Despite this, futures are pointing higher? Confusing.
The gains that the market has made this morning most likely will be given up.
Short Sale of the Day: Chico’s FAS Inc. (CHS)
Analysis: Too bad we didn’t go with Chico’s for our Overnight Trade. The stock is trading as high a 9%+ up this morning in pre-market trading despite only a penny beat on profits and declining margins in the company’s Q3 earnings. Earnings were better than expected for the company, but it only beat by less than 5% on profits per share. Further, the company’s margins fell as it heavily discounted its goods.
The company is taking quite the jump this morning on its earnings report, and it it up quite significantly. This has pushed the stock above its upper bollinger band at its current opening price with the top limit being around .png)
10.90. The stock moved as high as 11, but it made it no higher. With the market definitely being in a bear run right now, any gains we make this morning off the bat may be given up throughout the day. Chico’s will probably be the same way. I expect it to open up high and gain…
The Oxen Report: Position Updates and 16 Days of Oxen
by David Ristau - November 16th, 2010 12:25 pm
Good Tuesday to everyone. Well it isn’t too good of a day. It is a day like today when we really just can ignore our stop losses because there is nothing we could have done and everything is crashing. Today, I am going to give us a nice update on some new positions, and I want to unveil something new called the 16 Days of Oxen, which is a new preview/opportunity with my new website (details below).
Currently, we have positions in FSLR, DBRN, and STP.
First Solar (FSLR) - We are getting killed on this one, and I think it is time to pull the plug. We have just not gotten anything good out of it, and I would rather kill it than try to make it work. I am getting out at 134.35 and taking a nice 4%+ loss with an entry at 140.40.
Dress Barn (DBRN) – We are down 1% with this one, which is really good considering the circumstances. The company has today, tomorrow, and Thursday to make its way back up and become a profitable trade, so I am not too worried. We entered this one at 23.83.
Suntech Power (STP) – This one is also down pretty significantly for us as well. Unlike FSLR, this one has a lot of potential heading into tomorrow. The company is slated to report earnings. What I am going to do is DD here at 8.36, which will average my position down to 8.48. Then, we are going to play this as a basic Overnight Trade. I am pumped for their earnings tomorrow.
16 Days of Oxen – As most of you know, I will be leaving the website at the end of the month. We are launching our new website on December 1 and are very excited. To get ready for the launch and unveil some of the new features. We are allowing a chance for people to sign up early for an account with the new website and receive 16 days of exclusive material that will only be available to new Oxen Group members. Today, for example, people that have signed up will receive an exclusive investing idea that will only be available to them. If you are interested, let me know below or email me at david.ristau@theoxengroup.com.
Good Investing,
David Ristau
The Oxen Report: Play of the Week as Market Looks to Rebound
by David Ristau - November 15th, 2010 9:11 am
Good Monday to all. Hope everyone had a refreshing weekend. This morning we are looking closely at the China Sunergy earnings. The company reported EPADS at 0.38 vs. the expected 0.26 for a surprise of over 45%. The company saw revenues 
rise 57% to beat the street at $125.8M as shipments rose over 60%. The company did report they believe they will see margins decline in Q4. The stock is up close to 7% in pre-market trading. We are looking to exit CSUN at the open and take whatever gains we can get. FSLR and STP are up in pre-market, but they are not at sellable levels yet.
The market is looking strong to start the week with retail sales coming in at their highest levels since March. The chart I showed on Friday predicted this would occur. Since we only have one spot left in the Buy virtual Portfolio, we will reserve it for a Play of the Week. We will look to the $5 List and Longterm Ratings for a possible Buy candidate and Short Sale candidate later this morning.
For now, here is our Weekly Buy…
Play of the Week: The Dress Barn Inc. (DBRN)
Analysis: Retail is looking pretty strong to start off the retail earnings season. Today, retail sales were reported as improving 1.2% in October, which was the highest increase since March. This week, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, Saks, and many more report their earnings. One company that is looking for a very solid Q1FY11 is The Dress Barn Inc. (DBRN). The company specializes in operating The Dress Barn and Justice stores mainly. Dress Barn is a mid-level fashion store that offers casual to business wear to women in their 30s – 50s. Justice is a young girl to pre-teen retail store.
The company is slated to report earnings on Thursday afternoon. The company is slated to report EPS at 0.62 vs. one year ago at 0.33. Such a large increase in earnings typically would make one think that a stock has pretty 
strong valuations. Yet, in one year the stock has only jumped a bit over 10%, and the stock is currently undervalued. The company tends to beat EPS estimates, and they beat one year ago by over 15%.
I do not expect…
The Oxen Report: Let’s Go Midterm and Longterm For Day #5 in the Red
by David Ristau - November 12th, 2010 11:23 am
I truly hope next week brings us a different result. We are currently involved in CSUN, FSLR, and KKD. Each position has held up in the market’s fifth straight day of declines because they are solid investment opportunities. Monday morning, CSUN is going to report earnings. The company has gotten no love moving into earnings like other solar companies, so I will continue to hold this and expect big things for it. FSLR is only down 1.5% for us, so there is no reason to take that loss. KKD is at the 3% stop loss area right now. If this was just a random one day decline, I would say let’s give up on this position. We have held this through three straight days of red. On a green day, this will soar. Let’s hope that is Monday. We are holding all. I will only stop loss KKD if it gets to 5.30 or below.
Since everything has taken quite a hit, there are some compelling midterm trades moving into next week and we will also finish the Longterm Rating Report setup on 1-2 more of our current positions. We have transferred all of the old Longterm Positions into Ratings now, so it is time to start on some new Ratings. If you have an idea…post below.
Midterm Trade of the Day: Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP)
Analysis: Why do I continue to be sucked into solar plays? They always fit my criteria and scanning process because they are opportunities for growth from unneeded undervaluation. Suntech Power is the latest victim of my Midterm Trade. The company is slated to report earnings on Wednesday morning, and they look very strong for major growth moving into earnings. The company is slated to report earnings around 0.23 EPS vs. 0.16 one year ago.
What do I tend to want to see in a Midterm Trade? A stock that is undervalued or has dropped into the point where we are going to enter the stock equipped with a lot of potential and market reasoning behind why it should rise. .png)
Suntech has a lot of both. The stock has dropped 7% since the beginning of this week, which has pushed it into some undervalued levels.
The stock is reporting earnings on Wednesday. Every single solar company that matters has reported thus far has beaten expectations and forecasted…
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