Oxen Group Trades
The Oxen Report: The Tech Money Making Pick You Didn’t Know
by David Ristau - September 16th, 2009 8:19 am
Tuesday was good and bad for the Oxen Report. Our short sale of the day worked very well for us. I chose Ultrashort Proshares Oil and Gas for our short sale of the day due to my expectations that oil would drop in price as the market rallied and going into crude inventories. We opened our position at 14.65 and were looking for a sale price of 14.36 - 14.22. The stock just met 14.36 for a great 2% gain on the day! On the other hand, Best Buy was not as successful. We entered our position at 40.10 and were wanting to exit around 41.00 - 41.20. The stock, however, dropped 3% and hit my stop loss point before bouncing all the way back from the lows of the day to hit 41.14, right in our range. If you held, you made 2.5%, but if you stop lossed like I do, then you were 3% in the hole.
Result: 1/2, 2% gain on short sale and 3% loss (sort of) on buy pick.
The Buy Pick of the Day was the only the second miss the Oxen Report has had in the past two weeks! On to today…
Buy Pick of the Day: Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS)
At 8:30 AM, Core CPI numbers came in right as expected, which is probably the best thing that can happen. The CPI is the Core Price Index, and it measures inflation. An increase in the CPI means higher prices and lower signals deflation. The CPI rose by 0.10%. There is a slight rise, but it was not signficant. Another piece of data was the Current Account, which measures the difference in worth between exported and 
imported goods, services, and interest payments (exports minus imports). This number was lower than expected, and it is a sign that American goods are worse off than expected. The news is not great for exporters, but it probably is not a market mover.
While Electronic Arts is one of those exporters, the stock is also my pick of the day. Over the past month, Electronic Arts has dropped just under 15% in market value. In the past week, it has dropped just over 5%. The reason is due to weak deman in video game sales that have been released in the past two months. Madden 2010, for example, which is the bread n butter of ERTS’ gaming life, took a 15% hit…
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The Oxen Report: Retail Leads the Way for Market
by David Ristau - September 15th, 2009 8:25 am
I am changing up the format a bit on The Oxen Report starting today. Let me know what you think. Yesterday, our buy pick of the day was very successful, giving us a solid 3% return. At 8:15 AM, I chose E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) as my buy pick of the day. In my Oxen Report Morning Levels alert for members, I suggested entering E*Trade at 1.72 for an entry point with an exit at 1.79. After five minutes of the open, E*Trade pulled back to 1.72, where we opened the position. By 9:45 AM, the stock had reached 1.79 for a 3% gain. Yingli Green Energy (YGE) was our Short Sale of the Day. Unfortunately, this stock did not work as well due to the rally in the market. A First Solar downgrade, as well as, a heavily overweighted YGE was the thinking behind the pick, but the stock got too far down in price in the morning, and we entered at too low of a price with 12.55. We got stopped out for a 3% stop loss at 12.80. Went 1/2 yesterday, but made that great 3% on ETFC.
On to today…
Buy Pick of the Day: Best Buy Inc.
Typically, one does not select a company that missed its EPS and profit estimates for its second quarter results as its buy of
the day, but I like the prospects for BBY. The company did miss estimates and is only down 1% in pre-market trading as of 8:30 AM. Why is that? The company made $158 million in profit in its Q2 results, which was down 22% from one quarter ago. The company hit an EPS of 0.37, while analysts had been expecting the company to hit an EPS of 0.42. On the other hand, the company grew revenue 12% beating expectations and raised its full year outlook from 2.50 - 2.70 EPS to 2.70 - 3.00 EPS, with analysts expecting 2.87 on average.
A lot of numbers but what it really means is that the company grew its revenue from one year ago and was able to raise its full year outlook while missing profit estimates in the short term. So, in the long term, the stock’s book value is higher for the full year based on its raise in expectations. This makes the long term prospects of the company better, but in the very short term, it is not as strong.
With the way the…
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The Oxen Report: Let the Trade Wars Begin, Lehman’s Anniversary
by David Ristau - September 14th, 2009 8:15 am
The markets will be centering on what could be the start of a trade war (that I highly unadvise) between the USA and China. On Friday, the USA imposed tariffs on China’s imported tires, which President Barack Obama approved on Friday as a way to stop the loss of American jobs because the cheap tires are threatening American-made tires in an unfair way. China, however, has now accused the USA of violating WTO regulations and wants to convene a WTO meeting on the matter. The USA, however, says they were acting behind a part of China’s WTO membership that says that the USA may raise tariffs to slow Chinese imports to allow America’s industries to adjust. The situation is brewing into what could soon be an Entertainment Tonight special on he said, she said.
The wars, however, have had an impact on the marketplace. All of Asia and Europe are mostly down expect for China’s Shanghai Composite. The unrest and unease of the global marketplace is reflecting poorly in the markets today. All European markets are down over 1%. This story is able to really capture these markets as very little major economic data, earnings, or other leading stories are capturing the market’s attention.
Today is also the one year anniversary of the demise of Lehman Brothers, which is cited as the focal point and beginning of the financial crash. President Obama will be addressing the nation on what the government has done to try and stabilize and strengthen financial institutions. According to an AP Poll released today, though, 7 out of every 10 American do not believe that the government has taken the proper steps to prevent another meltdown.
The Lehman news, the poll, and the USA’s situation with China all are negatively impacting the market’s futures, which are down pretty significantly. The Dow Jones’ futures are down 60 points as of 8:00 AM, while the NASDAQ’s are down 12 points.
The only good news I see is that oil prices are dropping because of a stronger dollar. Oil dropped in Asia overnight and is down in early trading on the NYMEX. This won’t improve the markets, but a lower oil price is good for most Americans and many businesses (besides energy producers).
Additionally, the market did get upgrades on a number of institutions this morning. The major one was a Credit Suisse upgrade of UPS and a Citigroup upgrade of E*Trade Financial. Soleil, however, downgraded First…
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The Oxen Report: Lots of Data, Can Market Sustain Rally?
by David Ristau - September 11th, 2009 8:30 am
Today, the market is looking at a multitude of data points that will be coming in throughout the day. it starts at 8:30 with the Import Price Index. At 9:55 AM, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released that measures the attitude of consumers for the month of August. At 10:00 AM, the Commerce Department will be releasing August information on wholesale inventories, which is a strong barometer for the health of the industrial side of our economy. Finally, at 2:00 PM the Federal Budget Balance is released, which will give a reading on the budget deficit, which is expected to go down. So, there is a ton of data that is going to be coming out throughout the day that will shape the market’s direction.
As of now, the sentiment of investors appears to be neutral with the Dow up only a single point and the NASDAQ up over five points. Investors are waiting for some of this data to help give them a sense of direction. The world markets have all given some hope to investors as the European markets are all in the positive, and there were mixed results in Asia with Japan doing well while others struggled. A continually weak dollar is helping these stocks have stronger relative value.
The American market did not get a lot of other pertinent news this morning. National Semiconductor has been giving some gains to the tech world as it beat expectations this morning despite a 61% drop in profits. Additionally, Plum Creek Timber, one of my least favorite stocks moving forward, was upgraded by Credit Suisse because the stock does not warrant the type of sell off it has been receiving. Other than that, it has been a very light morning on the news front.
Oil continued above $72 per barrel in Asia on Friday, but the NYMEX has already dropped future prices below $72 per barrel. This could be due to some general lack of information that came out today, but the rise may be taking a temporary halt on Friday.
8:30 AM Update: The import price index increased more than 2% in August, which was double the 1% expected rise. The price of imports increased due to higher oil prices. Even without oil prices, the import prices still rose 0.4%. The increase is very different than the 15% drop one year ago. The news is not extremely positive for the…
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The Oxen Report: US Dollar in Free Fall, Health Care Bill on Its Way
by David Ristau - September 10th, 2009 8:18 am
While I don’t think it has much effect on the market except for possibly some pyschological issues, Vice President Joe Biden said that he expects legislation on the healthcare bill to come through by Thanksgiving. Further, President Barack Obama remained adamant and stern about his thoughts on healthcare even while being attacked last night in a press conference. The two appear to not be wavering at all on the bill, and it appears on its way, whether you find that good or bad is up to you.
The markets, however, will be reacting to two key economic data points that will be released this morning at 8:30 AM. Those reports include the weekly initial jobless claims report that is expected to drop 15,000 to 555,000 from last week. The US government will also be releasing important information about the August trade balance of the USA. The balance has continued to drop and become more neutral due to less exports by American citizens. The balance is expected to drop again today. These two data points are extremely important, and with the current futures we are seeing, they should help give the market direction.
At this point, the futures are basically completely neutral. The Dow was down 1 point as of 7:45 AM, while the Nasdaq was up 2 points. Nothing too compelling at this point, but the neutrality is basically a result of another pretty uneventful morning.
There are no major earnings to announce this morning, with only two American companies even reporting earnings. Asia did have a strong day, as they were propelled by optimism about the American economy reported by the Federal Reserve’s
Beige Book report, as well as, a bounce back from yesterday’s sell off. Europe, on the other hand, started out mostly positive, but a number of the markets have turned south, losing momentum. Pretty mixed here, but the Shanghai Composite was the only Asian market to drop, which is significant as it appears time and again to strongly influence American markets.
Oil prices continue to rise, jumping at ridiculously fast rates, which is worrisome. The oil market has risen almost $4.00 in just two days. Today, the market will get some definite direction when the crude oil inventories report is released at 11 AM. On the other hand, the market should start on a positive note as the IEA made a report that the oil market will drop 2.2% from one…
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The Oxen Report: Quiet Day Means Up or Down for the Market?
by David Ristau - September 9th, 2009 8:28 am
For me, one of the most important indicators of where the market is headed is when there is not a lot of catalyst to give the market a sense of whether its bullish or bearish it still goes either up or down. That gives me a sense of where the market is headed, in terms of, general momemtum.
Today is going to be one of those days. Nearly every indicator and bit of news is basically saying nothing. Starting with futures, as of 8 AM, the futures for the Dow are up just four points, whereas the Nasdaq is actually down a single point. The market is not really getting any clues as to which way it will go and which way it should go. There is no major economic data coming out until 2 PM when the Fed releases its economic barometer, the Beige Book. Other than that, there is really nothing coming out today.
Additionally, there were no major earnings releases to help even drive specific sectors. Even the world markets are confusing because Asia was hit today with a 0.5% to 1 % loss across thboard. Yet, the e European markets opened in the red and proceeded to march upwards and onwards and are up 0.5% to 1% now. Europe did not really have a catalyst either. The only major data point was Germany’s CPI, which believe it or not was just NEUTRAL and met right at expectations.
Some financial news is saying that a weak dollar was the means for the drop out in Asia and Europe, and Europe is less affected by the fluctuations in the dollar, so it hurt the stocks. If it is true that the dollar did have a significant drop this is not good for stocks, and it may be one hint about where we could be headed for the day.
The oil market, though, has skyrocketed on the weak dollar above $71 per barrel and those higher commodity prices seem as of recently, even though it is fundamentally flawed, has pumped stock prices up higher. This could be a rallying point, but it is pretty weak if there is not at least something else to complement it.
The final news, on the day, that I found pretty interesting was a statement from execs at Boeing and Airbus. The two companies have commented that they do not believe air travel will pick up and return to normal until 2011.…
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The Oxen Report - G-20 Inspiring World Markets, America Drops Top Spot
by David Ristau - September 8th, 2009 8:15 am
The World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland that combines 13,000 world business leaders took a poll about the country with the most competitive economy. The USA lost its top spot to Switzerland, which got the top spot because of its "relatively stable" economy during these hard times. While I do not think this should be market moving news, it is very interesting indeed. For some time, America has continued to lose its preeminence among the world in both business and politics. This is yet another sign that the USA has its work cut out to build itself back up to something prestigious.
Okay enough with the rant. The big market moving news, however, is the G-20. The meeting of the twenty top world economies said that they will be keeping stimulus measures in place to continue boosting the global economy. Concerns over certain countries rescinding stimuli or pushing for countries to stop pushing certain packages was a worry. The markets in Asia and Europe have reacted very well to the news, and it appears that the American markets will, as well.
With pretty much no economic data on the day, the G-20 movement and market momentum will push the market, most likely upwards. At 3:00 PM, the market will get some news on consumer credit, but that will probably only play out effectively in the last hour of the day and tomorrow’s market.
One bit of weak news I did see this morning was from Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD). The country’s leading pork producer was hit hard by weak hog prices, still slightly spurned by swine flu fears and a drop in demand for pork. The company reported a quarterly loss at -0.56 EPS, whereas the company was expected to earn -0.55 EPS. The company has dropped a slight 1% in the pre-market.
The world economy’s renewed optimism about recovery is definitely driving future prices higher. As of 8:00 AM, the Dow’s open price is up almost 90 points, while the Nasdaq is close to 16 points. Those numbers appear to be falling slightly with the Dow now looking at an 83 point higher open and the Nasdaq with 14, but these fiugures are still very high. The numbers may actually be too high and unhealthy, and we may see some slight profit taking to start the day off if things really do open this high.
Finally, my favorite market besides the stock market is…
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The Oxen Report: Bears Aren’t Hibernating Anymore, Can the Market Turn Around?
by David Ristau - September 2nd, 2009 8:42 am
Yesterday was an absolute sloshing of the stock market with every sector falling on its face. We were able to come out
by the skin of our teeth with some gains, but it leaves me wondering how we can get going again in this market. There is going to need to be some type of catalyst now to turn the market’s direction. Today, it could have come from the ADP’s Non-Farm Unemployment Change numbers released at 8:15 AM or productivity or the world markets or anything.
Unfortunately, anything may be too much to ask for today. The Unemployment index numbers came in much worse than expected with another 298,000 non-farm jobs lost in Q2 2009, while analysts were expecting 250,000. It was an improvement from June’s 350,000+, but the numbers were much higher than expected, signalling recovery is going to be slow and new jobs are going to be hard to find.
At 8:30 AM, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the unit labor costs were also worse than expected in the second quarter of the year with the average unit costing 5.9% less than one year ago, a higher drop than Q1 and way above expectations of 5.3%. This means that the average employee is making less money than before.
The silver lining is that the workers we do have in the non-farm field are still being productive even though they are being paid less and there are less of them.
The futures before the first report came out at 8:15 AM about non-farm employment were just slightly negative with the Dow down around three points. After the report, the Dow dropped down to a 27 point lowered opening and the Nasdaq fell to almost seven points lower. The market did not take the news initially well, but I will continue to monitor that.
Asia and Europe also will not be a catalyst. Every major European index is down over 1%. The majority of Asian indices were down 1-2%, but the Shanghai Composite actually was up above 1%.
On another good note, Joy Global, the coal mining equimpment manufacturer and servicer, reported extremely bullish earnings this morning with an EPS of 1.21 vs. 0.95 expectations. The company, additionally, raised its full year outlook. This should be good for the sector JOYG is involved within, but it probably does not have the type of legs to make any major market movements.
With another bleak day staring us in…
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The Oxen Report Portfolio: August Recap…A Modest Month of Gains
by David Ristau - September 1st, 2009 4:14 pm
Note: The way each portfolio works is that I have what I call a rotating $3000 starting portfolio that is broken into three smaller $1000 accounts. This way I can account for cash settlement time but still play the market on every day. Each account I charge $4 for every buy and sell to account for costs of transactions. The Buy Pick Portfolio began on March 9, 2009.
Buy Pick of the Day Portfolio Results - August
| Date | Stock | Buy Price | Sell Price | % Change | Account 1 | Account 2 | Account 3 | Total $ | |
| 8/3/2009 | UNH | 27.2 | 27.6 | 1.50% | 1553.44 | 4772.87 | |||
| 8/4/2009 | ERY | 17.4 | 17.31 | -0.50% | 1845.34 | 4755.24 | |||
| 8/5/2009 | OWW - SS | 4.55 | 4.37 | 4.00% | 1402.1 | 4800.88 | |||
| 8/6/2009 | AMD | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.00% | 1545.44 |
4792.88 |
|||
| 8/9/2009 | CMCSA | 14.95 | 15.15 | 1.34% | 1861.94 |
4809.48 |
|||
| 8/10/2009 | PAAS | 19.75 | 19.23 | -2.13% | 1364.7 | 4772.08 | |||
| 8/11/2009 | ERY | 18.15 | 18.21 | 0.33% | 1542.54 | 4769.18 | |||
| 8/12/2009 | SKF | 28.35 | 29.20 | 3.00% | 1909.19 | 4806.43 | |||
| 8/13/2009 | DUG | 16.68 | 17.18 | 3.00% | 1397.20 | 4838.93 | |||
| 8/18/2009 | SRS | 13.40 | 13.00 | -3.00% | 1488.54 | 4780.93 | |||
| 8/19/2009 | TYP | 16.40 | 16.00 | -2.43% | 1854.79 | 4734.53 | |||
| 8/20/2009 | UYG | 5.28 | 5.39 | 2.08% | 1418.24 | 4755.47 | |||
| 8/24/2009 | MA | 208 | 206 | -0.96% | 1466.54 | 4733.47 | |||
| 8/25/2009 | DUG | 15.10 | 15.55 | 3.00% | 1904.39 | 4783.07 | |||
| 8/26/2009 | FDO | 30.4 | 31.30 | 3.00% | 1451.64 | 4816.47 | |||
| 8/27/2009 | UYG | 5.55 | 5.72 | 3.00% | 1503.42 | 4853.35 | |||
| 8/31/2009 | BHI | 36.25 | 35.2 | 3.00% | 1950.99 | 4899.95 |
Buy Pick Portfolio Career Results Graph
Sell Pick of the Day Portfolio Results - August
I started tracking these picks on 8/02/09 with my start here at Phil’s Stock World.
| Date | Stock | Buy Price | Sell Price | % Change | Account 1 | Account 2 | Account 3 | Total $ |
| 8/02/09 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 3000 | ||||
| 8/03/09 | F | 8.83 | 8.58 | 2.83% | 1020.25 | 3020.25 | ||
| 8/04/09 | DHI | 11.4 | 11.1 | 2.63% | 1018.1 | 3038.35 | ||
| 8/05/09 | NE | 34.4 | 34.6 | -0.58% | 986.2 | 3024.55 | ||
| 8/06/09 | CAL | 11.7 | 12.05 | -3.00% | 981.80 | 2986.10 | ||
| 8/09/09 | DYN | 1.92 | 1.88 | 2.00% | 1033.3 | 2999.3 | ||
| 8/10/09 | DIG | 28.8 | 28.24 | 2.00% | 997.24 | 3010.34 | ||
| 8/11/09 | ERX | 33.35 | 33.19 | 0.47% | 978.44 | 3006.98 | ||
| 8/12/09 | MFB | 15.31 | 15.11 | 1.30% | 1038.7 | 3012.38 | ||
| 8/13/09 | BBI | 0.74 | 0.70 | 4.00% | 1043.12 | 3058.26 | ||
| 8/18/09 | HOV | 3.77 | 3.91 | -3.00% | 934.18 | 3014 | ||
| 8/19/09 | AXL | 6.25 | 6.43 | -3.00% | 1000.82 | 2976.12 | ||
| 8/20/09 | JCP | 30.64 | 30.69 | -0.16% | 1033.42 | 2966.42 | ||
| 8/24/09 | TOL | 22.35 | 21.70 | 3.00% | 952.83 | 2985.07 | ||
| 8/25/09 | SPLS | 21.85 | 21.79 | -0.27% | 990.12 |
2974.37 |
||
| 8/26/09 | LVS | 14.40 | 13.97 | 3.00% | 1055.95 | 2996.90 | ||
| 8/27/09 | DELL | 14.75 | 15.19 | -3.00% | 916.67 | 2960.74 | ||
| 8/31/09 | AIG | 45.07 | 43.27 | 4.00% | 1019.92 | 2990.54 |
Good Investing!
David Ristau
…
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The Oxen Report: Market Looking for Direction in September
by David Ristau - September 1st, 2009 8:14 am
The stock market looks like it may be looking for new direction on Tuesday as investors are awaiting pending home sales and the ISM Manufacturing Index for more signs on whether recovery is on the way. Over the past week and a half, the market has had trouble keeping its rally going and continuing to resiliently drive up market prices. The issue has been a lack of data and earnings reportings.
Futures as of 7:30 AM were showing a lower open for the market, with the Dow down nearly 50 points, the Nasdaq was down 11 points, and the S&P was down nearly 6 points. This was somewhat driven by the fact that every European index is down today, and the Asian rally seen this morning was too modest to create any influence on the American markets. Europe was hit hard due to unemployment rising to its highese level in ten years and nearing the 10% mark.
Oil rose just ever so slightly in Asia today back above $70 per barrel. Most analysts seem to agree that oil is definitely stuck in a slight rande with $65 per barrel on the low side and the low $70s on the high side.
It still was another rather uneventful morning in the slow doldrums of the September month, which is notoriously one of the weakest months of the year.
Credit Suisse upgraded Vale ADS (VALE), who is a Brazilian mining company that mines and produces metals, but other than that, it was a pretty quiet morning. We will just have to sort of wait and see what comes out on the data front before being able to make any decisions on stocks and where the market is headed. The question is whether or not good data can really transform the market from red to green.
Buy Pick of the Day: Ford Motors Co. (F)
In the past two weeks, Ford Motors has been pretty stagnant with not too much news coming out post-Cash for Clunkers. 
The stock has dropped about 10% over the two week period, and it is starting to become undervalued. Today, Ford and other auto companies will be announcing their August total auto sales throughout the day. The "Cash for Clunkers" program should have definitely helped the July Sales for Ford, but how greatly is yet to be seen. The positive about the whole issue is that investors have not been running the stock up in…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(