December 28th, 2011 Market Analysis with Gold Update
by Chart School - December 28th, 2011 5:24 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
The US Dollar was up and the market was down on minimal volume. And yup, that’s about the extent of today’s action. The biggest gainer on my watch list of 125 securities was Bankrate (RATE) with a paltry +0.8% return. Updated market charts below. See you tomorrow!
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DiggDecember 27th, 2011 Market Analysis with look at Oil, BWLD, XLP
by Chart School - December 27th, 2011 5:28 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
A fairly flat day for the market but many are citing the head & shoulders breakout on the Dow Jones as a bullish indicator for the market moving forward. Let’s start there.
And one chart from StockCharts.com, “Of the nine sector SPDRs, only two hit new 52-week highs last week: the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and the Utilities SPDR (XLU). These two defensive sectors are clearly leading the market right now. The chart below shows XLP breaking its May highs and the Price Relative moving higher since February.”
Market Analysis with V, ISRG & Happy Holidays!
by Chart School - December 22nd, 2011 6:33 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
As usual there will be no Friday market recap so I wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Posting will resume sometime next week, most likely on Tuesday the 27th.
Some holiday market cheer from online broker TradeKing.
Market analysis below including Visa (V) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). See you next week!
December 20th, 2011 Stock Market Analysis and ADP’s Breakout
by Chart School - December 20th, 2011 6:15 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Tonight’s best to the point market summary comes from the WSJ,
U.S. stocks rallied as domestic home building jumped to the highest level in nearly two years and another successful Spanish debt auction buoyed investor sentiment.
The roller coaster continues… now for some updated charts.
A beautiful breakout for Automatic Data Processing (ADP) through $53. This stock looks poised to move higher from here.
December 19th, 2011 Stock Market Analysis
by Chart School - December 19th, 2011 7:08 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Today’s key headlines: North Korea’s Kim Jong II dies of heart attack, Bank of America falls under $5 for the first time in three years, ATT gives up on its $39 Billion bid to acquire T-Mobile.
And lastly I am including a chart of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) as it was the top performer in my watch list. An impressive setup here despite the shaky market.
December 15th, 2011 Stock Market Recap
by Chart School - December 15th, 2011 6:19 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
A very “blah” day for the markets. Nothing crazy exciting beyond Zynga (ZNGA) selling 100 million shares at $10 and starting its trading tomorrow alongside Research in Motion (RIMM) posting sour earnings (the stock is down over 7% after hours).
Thus tonight I am jumping straight to the charts. There will be no recap tomorrow as usual so I will see you back here after the weekend break. Have a good one!
December 14th, 2011 Stock Market Recap… Biggest Market Moments
by Chart School - December 14th, 2011 7:54 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Today’s best “to the point” market summary comes from Goldmans “God workers” (hat tip ZeroHedge):
Another down day for stocks. Why? EURUSD down. Why? Gold down. Why? Momentum and technicals – and neither the FED or ECB is ramping up the printing presses any time soon. Unfortunately this is as good as the explanation gets today. Lower unless there’s a reason for it to be otherwise. SPX drops 14 to close 1212 (-1.13%). The DOW closes down 131 at 11823 (-1.10%). The NASDAQ closes down 40 at 2539 (-1.555%).
A great read and 2011 look back today comes from JB of the Reformed Broker, The Ten Biggest Market Moments of 2011:
10. David Einhorn Savages Green Mountain – In mid-October, the hedge fund manager took on one of the hottest stocks in the market, releasing a 110-slide presentation on why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters was his newest short position. Einhorn, known for his very public takedowns of Lehman Brothers and Allied World in the past, laid out a multi-pronged thesis ranging from an overly promotional management team, mysterious transfers of stale inventory, bizarre accounting practices and a looming patent expiration that would lead to a flood of competition. Shareholders sold first and asked questions later – the stock was decimated, losing 30 points, dropping from 93 to 64 within a week and a half. On November 9th, Green Mountain reported a massive earnings disappointment and the stock promptly dropped another 30% after hours. He may have seen his deal to buy the NY Mets slip through his fingers, but in the battle of Green Mountain, it’s advantage: Einhorn for sure.
An up to date chart of GMCR is included below.
What’s your 2011 highlight market moment?
December 12th, 2011 Market Recap with Gold Update
by Chart School - December 12th, 2011 6:42 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
The market continues to dance around as rumors regarding Europe float around and investors continue to question the future.
Of all the market action today, the highlight was Gold. Every technical trader has noted Gold’s breakdown today, suggesting it is now poised to continue its downtrend and move much lower. My last Gold update came on December 5th. Re-read that then check out the analysis below. Looks can be deceiving!
Lastly, StockCharts.com posted a great quick read on defining island reversals with some example charts.
Stay frosty out there and I will see you back here tomorrow. 
The US National Debt Burden per Capita
by Chart School - November 4th, 2011 9:51 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
In 1831, the National Debt Burden per Capita, or rather the ratio of the United States’ national debt per capita and GDP, multiplied by 1 billion), dropped below a value of 3 for the first time in its history [1]. In 2011, the US National Debt Burden per Capita has risen above that level.
Let’s look at what happened to the US National Debt Burden per Capita in between, shall we?
Wars and depressions largely characterize the periods of time where there have been significant run-ups in the level of the US National Debt Burden per Capita, with the debt taken on to support the costs of the US Civil War and World War II being the most significant.
In looking at today’s level of the National Debt Burden per Capita, we see that it is perhaps most comparable to the Great Depression.
Throughout all this time, we’ll note that the National Debt Burden per Capita has only fallen when the United States government curtailed its elevated level of spending. Typically, that has been solely the result of spending cuts following periods of conflict, rather than tax increases [2].
Political Calculations’ The US Economy at Your Fingertips tool puts all this data, and more, at your fingertips, covering the period from 1791 through 2010 (at this writing)!
Notes
[1] Prior to 1831, the national debt burden per capita was considerably higher, thanks largely to the debt taken on by the new nation to pay for the costs of the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812.
[2] Before 1913, there was no income tax in the United States, yet the federal government in those days succeeded in lowering the National Debt Burden per Capita primarily by shrinking government spending after running up debt and instead encouraging economic and population growth. That may be a lesson that today’s politicians can well afford to learn.
Finally, let’s see what’s in store for the future, if the US continues on its current path:
(c) Craig Eyermann
MyGovCost.org
Note from dshort: For some additional perspective on debt and taxes, see my commentaries from a few months ago:
October Employment: Only 80K New Jobs, But Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.0%
by Chart School - November 4th, 2011 9:51 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Despite a slightly lower-than-expected 80K new jobs the unemployment rate declined from 9.1% to 9.0%. The briefing.com consensus was for 85K new jobs. Today’s report included an upward revision of last month’s Nonfarm Payrolls from 103K to 158K.
Here is the lead paragraph from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up in October (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in the private sector rose, with modest job growth continuing in professional and businesses services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to trend down.
The unemployment peak for the current cycle was 10.2% in October 2009. The chart here shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and both the nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite since 1948.
Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator that moves inversely with equity prices (top chart). Note the increasing peaks in unemployment in 1971, 1975 and 1982. The inverse pattern becomes clearer when viewed against real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite, with its successively lower bear market bottoms. The mirror relationship seems to be repeating itself with the current and previous bear markets.
The second chart shows the unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over. The October number is 3.8% — down from last month’s 4.1%. This measure gives an alternative perspective on the relative severity of economic conditions. As we readily see, this metric remains significantly higher than the peak in 1983, which came six months after the broader measure topped out at 10.8%.
The next chart is an overlay of the unemployment rate and the employment-population ratio. This is the ratio of the number of employed people to the total civilian population age 16 and over.
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